TABLE 4 ESTIMATES OF 13-MONTH SMOOTH SOLAR ACTIVITY FOR BALANCE OF CYCLE 23 CYCLE 24 AND BEGINNING TIME SUNSPOT NUMBERS (R) GEOMAGNETIC INDEX (Ap) PERCENTILE PERCENTILE 95.0% 50% 5.0% 95.0% 50% 5.0% 1998.6673 SEP 76.2 71.4 67.0 14.3 13.4 12.4 1998.7507 OCT 83.2 74.9 68.6 15.4 13.8 11.9 1998.8340 NOV 90.8 78.0 68.1 16.2 14.0 11.4 1998.9173 DEC 97.3 80.9 66.7 16.8 14.3 11.0 1999.0007 JAN 102.8 83.3 68.2 17.3 14.7 10.8 1999.0840 FEB 107.6 85.4 68.4 17.9 15.1 11.1 1999.1673 MAR 114.1 87.8 66.2 18.1 15.3 11.3 1999.2507 APR 122.0 90.0 63.2 18.7 15.6 11.8 1999.3340 MAY 128.5 92.3 59.1 19.1 15.9 12.9 1999.4173 JUN 133.5 94.5 55.6 19.1 16.1 13.3 1999.5007 JUL 136.7 96.6 54.1 19.2 16.2 13.7 1999.5840 AUG 139.9 98.4 53.5 19.6 16.3 13.9 1999.6673 SEP 144.1 100.5 54.5 19.5 16.4 14.1 1999.7507 OCT 147.5 102.3 54.4 19.3 16.3 14.4 1999.8340 NOV 148.3 103.6 52.9 19.3 16.4 14.1 1999.9173 DEC 146.2 104.4 51.5 19.0 16.5 14.0 2000.0007 JAN 145.5 104.5 49.4 19.2 16.7 14.0 2000.0840 FEB 144.2 104.9 49.7 20.0 17.2 13.8 2000.1673 MAR 146.1 105.8 51.5 20.9 17.5 13.7 2000.2507 APR 148.4 106.5 52.1 20.9 17.5 13.4 2000.3340 MAY 149.5 106.8 52.3 21.0 17.4 13.0 2000.4173 JUN 150.3 106.0 51.2 21.4 17.3 12.8 2000.5007 JUL 147.1 104.6 50.7 21.9 17.4 12.4 2000.5840 AUG 145.1 103.4 50.7 22.0 17.3 12.0 2000.6673 SEP 143.6 102.6 50.5 21.9 16.9 11.0 2000.7507 OCT 142.9 102.2 49.5 22.0 16.6 10.3 2000.8340 NOV 141.7 101.7 48.0 22.2 16.5 10.2 2000.9173 DEC 140.8 101.1 45.3 22.6 16.4 10.2 2001.0007 JAN 139.7 100.5 42.2 23.3 16.3 9.9 2001.0840 FEB 139.2 99.7 39.4 22.9 15.8 9.5 2001.1673 MAR 138.3 99.1 36.5 21.7 15.3 9.4 2001.2507 APR 140.6 98.6 34.6 20.9 14.9 9.6 2001.3340 MAY 143.0 97.7 33.1 20.3 14.7 10.0 2001.4173 JUN 141.2 96.7 32.5 19.9 14.6 10.2 2001.5007 JUL 137.7 95.2 31.1 19.7 14.5 10.3 2001.5840 AUG 134.8 93.1 29.4 19.5 14.6 10.4 2001.6673 SEP 133.6 91.3 28.3 19.4 15.0 10.7 2001.7507 OCT 133.0 90.2 27.8 19.2 15.6 11.6 2001.8340 NOV 132.0 89.1 27.8 19.3 16.0 12.1 2001.9173 DEC 131.2 87.5 28.1 19.3 16.2 12.2 2002.0007 JAN 132.4 85.7 28.6 19.8 16.5 12.8 2002.0840 FEB 134.4 84.3 29.6 21.1 17.1 13.1 2002.1673 MAR 134.5 83.2 30.5 22.4 17.5 13.4 2002.2507 APR 131.9 81.7 31.3 23.0 17.7 13.8 2002.3340 MAY 130.2 79.9 32.2 24.1 18.1 14.3 2002.4173 JUN 129.5 78.1 33.0 24.6 18.4 14.4 2002.5007 JUL 127.0 76.4 33.8 23.9 18.2 14.5 2002.5840 AUG 123.9 75.1 32.6 23.9 18.1 14.4 2002.6673 SEP 120.1 73.8 31.0 23.1 18.0 14.1 2002.7507 OCT 116.0 72.6 30.4 21.6 17.8 13.9 2002.8340 NOV 112.9 71.2 29.6 22.9 17.7 13.8 2002.9173 DEC 111.1 69.4 28.3 23.5 17.6 13.7 2003.0007 JAN 107.4 67.3 26.9 23.5 17.5 13.0 2003.0840 FEB 100.8 65.1 26.1 23.0 17.2 12.4 2003.1673 MAR 94.0 62.6 25.7 22.3 16.9 12.3 2003.2507 APR 90.6 60.7 26.0 22.3 17.0 12.6 2003.3340 MAY 89.7 59.0 25.6 23.2 17.4 12.8 2003.4173 JUN 89.0 57.5 25.2 24.1 17.8 13.0 2003.5007 JUL 87.5 55.9 25.5 24.4 18.1 13.2 2003.5840 AUG 85.7 54.3 25.0 24.4 18.5 13.4 2003.6673 SEP 82.5 52.5 23.2 24.4 18.7 13.4 2003.7507 OCT 79.2 50.9 20.6 24.0 18.6 13.0 2003.8340 NOV 77.6 49.2 19.2 22.5 18.4 13.0 2003.9173 DEC 75.3 47.3 17.5 21.8 18.3 13.1 2004.0007 JAN 74.4 45.5 16.0 22.1 18.3 13.7 2004.0840 FEB 73.3 44.3 14.9 22.3 18.6 13.9 2004.1673 MAR 70.9 43.2 14.4 21.7 18.6 13.9 2004.2507 APR 69.2 41.9 14.0 21.8 18.4 14.0 2004.3340 MAY 68.2 40.4 12.9 22.7 18.1 13.9 2004.4173 JUN 66.6 39.0 11.6 23.1 17.8 14.0 2004.5007 JUL 64.5 37.5 10.7 22.9 17.6 14.7 2004.5840 AUG 61.6 36.1 10.0 22.5 17.7 13.8 2004.6673 SEP 58.1 34.6 9.5 22.3 17.8 13.6 2004.7507 OCT 54.3 33.2 9.4 22.1 17.8 13.3 2004.8340 NOV 51.3 32.0 9.1 22.1 17.6 12.9 2004.9173 DEC 50.7 31.2 8.8 22.4 17.4 12.7 2005.0007 JAN 49.6 30.1 8.5 22.6 17.1 12.3 2005.0840 FEB 47.5 28.8 8.5 23.1 17.0 11.5 2005.1673 MAR 45.3 27.3 7.4 23.7 16.9 10.8 2005.2507 APR 43.2 26.3 7.2 24.3 17.1 11.1 2005.3340 MAY 42.8 25.4 6.9 24.8 17.2 11.2 2005.4173 JUN 41.5 24.4 6.6 25.0 17.2 11.1 2005.5007 JUL 39.6 23.4 6.4 24.9 17.2 11.2 2005.5840 AUG 39.0 22.5 6.0 24.3 17.1 11.4 2005.6673 SEP 38.4 21.6 5.6 23.4 16.8 11.6 2005.7507 OCT 36.5 20.5 5.2 22.5 16.6 11.7 2005.8340 NOV 34.5 19.3 4.8 22.1 16.5 11.6 2005.9173 DEC 32.6 18.1 4.4 21.7 16.5 11.4 2006.0007 JAN 30.7 17.0 4.0 21.4 16.6 11.5 2006.0840 FEB 28.8 15.9 3.6 21.1 16.6 11.7 2006.1673 MAR 27.0 14.8 3.2 21.0 16.3 11.6 2006.2507 APR 25.3 13.8 2.8 21.1 16.0 11.6 2006.3340 MAY 23.6 12.7 2.4 21.0 15.7 11.9 2006.4173 JUN 22.0 11.8 2.1 20.9 15.3 12.0 2006.5007 JUL 20.5 10.9 1.8 20.3 15.0 11.7 2006.5840 AUG 19.0 10.0 1.5 19.5 14.6 11.5 2006.6673 SEP 17.7 9.2 1.2 18.5 14.3 11.1 2006.7507 OCT 16.5 8.5 0.9 17.3 14.1 10.8 2006.8340 NOV 15.5 7.9 0.7 17.3 13.8 10.1 2006.9173 DEC 14.5 7.3 0.5 17.1 13.5 9.9 2007.0007 JAN 13.8 6.9 0.3 17.0 13.4 9.8 2007.0840 FEB 13.1 6.5 0.2 16.7 13.3 9.8 2007.1673 MAR 12.7 6.2 0.1 16.2 13.2 9.8 2007.2507 APR 12.4 6.0 0.0 16.1 12.9 9.8 2007.3340 MAY 12.3 6.0 0.0 15.9 12.7 9.8 2007.4173 JUN 12.9 6.4 0.4 15.6 12.4 9.7 2007.5007 JUL 14.3 7.1 0.8 15.3 12.2 9.7 2007.5840 AUG 15.5 7.8 1.1 14.8 11.8 9.4 2007.6673 SEP 16.7 8.5 1.6 14.3 11.5 9.0 2007.7507 OCT 18.2 9.2 1.7 13.8 11.1 8.7 2007.8340 NOV 20.6 10.2 2.2 13.4 10.8 8.4 2007.9173 DEC 23.0 11.2 2.8 13.0 10.4 8.2 2008.0007 JAN 25.1 12.3 3.0 12.6 10.1 7.9 2008.0840 FEB 28.4 13.6 3.1 12.2 9.9 7.7 2008.1673 MAR 32.5 15.0 3.3 11.9 9.6 7.4 2008.2507 APR 38.7 16.8 3.2 11.6 9.4 7.3 2008.3340 MAY 44.3 18.8 3.3 11.4 9.2 7.1 2008.4173 JUN 48.5 20.9 4.0 11.2 9.1 7.0 2008.5007 JUL 54.8 23.1 4.1 11.1 9.0 6.9 2008.5840 AUG 61.7 25.6 4.2 11.1 9.0 6.9 2008.6673 SEP 68.1 28.1 4.7 11.3 9.1 6.9 2008.7507 OCT 75.9 30.7 4.7 11.6 9.3 7.1 2008.8340 NOV 84.7 33.9 5.0 11.7 9.4 7.4 2008.9173 DEC 91.4 37.1 5.7 11.9 9.5 7.5 2009.0007 JAN 96.4 40.6 6.6 12.0 9.6 7.5 2009.0840 FEB 101.2 44.1 7.4 12.1 9.6 7.3 2009.1673 MAR 106.0 47.5 8.8 12.2 9.7 7.2 2009.2507 APR 111.3 50.8 9.5 12.6 9.8 7.0 2009.3340 MAY 117.0 54.2 9.6 12.9 10.1 6.9 2009.4173 JUN 122.3 57.9 11.1 13.3 10.5 7.1 2009.5007 JUL 126.8 61.7 12.2 13.8 10.8 7.5 2009.5840 AUG 134.2 65.3 13.2 14.6 11.1 7.8 2009.6673 SEP 142.0 68.8 14.4 15.8 11.4 7.6 2009.7507 OCT 146.7 72.2 14.9 16.2 11.6 7.6 2009.8340 NOV 148.5 75.3 15.4 16.4 11.7 7.5 2009.9173 DEC 151.8 78.1 16.0 16.9 11.9 7.5 2010.0007 JAN 155.5 80.4 16.3 18.1 12.2 7.5 2010.0840 FEB 159.3 82.5 16.7 19.0 12.6 7.6 2010.1673 MAR 164.8 84.8 16.6 19.2 12.8 7.6 2010.2507 APR 168.2 87.0 16.1 19.3 13.0 7.7 2010.3340 MAY 169.9 89.3 15.7 19.1 13.2 7.6 2010.4173 JUN 173.9 91.5 16.1 18.7 13.3 7.6 2010.5007 JUL 178.8 93.5 16.6 18.6 13.3 7.7 2010.5840 AUG 181.8 95.3 17.7 19.0 13.5 7.9 2010.6673 SEP 183.9 97.4 19.5 18.9 13.6 8.1 2010.7507 OCT 186.7 99.2 20.7 17.9 13.6 8.5 2010.8340 NOV 189.2 100.5 22.0 18.0 13.8 8.6 2010.9173 DEC 191.5 101.5 24.3 18.6 14.1 8.6 2011.0007 JAN 192.9 101.6 27.0 19.2 14.3 8.9 2011.0840 FEB 194.3 102.1 29.8 19.7 14.8 9.3 2011.1673 MAR 194.4 103.1 31.4 20.4 15.1 9.5 2011.2507 APR 193.8 103.7 32.8 20.4 15.2 9.5 2011.3340 MAY 195.2 104.1 35.2 20.4 15.2 9.7 2011.4173 JUN 195.8 103.4 37.0 20.6 15.2 9.9 2011.5007 JUL 192.6 102.0 39.4 20.9 15.4 10.4 2011.5840 AUG 188.0 101.0 41.1 21.3 15.4 11.0 2011.6673 SEP 183.4 100.3 42.5 21.3 15.3 11.6 2011.7507 OCT 181.2 100.0 43.7 21.5 15.1 11.2 2011.8340 NOV 180.5 99.6 43.6 21.7 15.1 11.1 2011.9173 DEC 179.4 99.0 43.1 22.1 15.1 10.6 2012.0007 JAN 178.2 98.4 43.9 22.9 15.0 10.1 2012.0840 FEB 176.8 97.7 45.7 22.6 14.7 9.8 2012.1673 MAR 176.1 97.2 45.9 21.4 14.4 10.0 2012.2507 APR 175.0 96.7 45.0 20.7 14.3 10.0 2012.3340 MAY 173.8 95.8 44.3 20.1 14.2 10.2 2012.4173 JUN 172.1 94.8 44.8 19.7 14.1 10.5 2012.5007 JUL 169.5 93.4 45.4 19.6 14.1 10.5 2012.5840 AUG 165.3 91.3 44.1 19.4 14.1 10.4 2012.6673 SEP 162.0 89.6 43.5 19.2 14.4 10.4 2012.7507 OCT 158.7 88.5 44.5 19.0 14.7 10.4 2012.8340 NOV 154.4 87.4 45.5 19.0 14.9 10.2 2012.9173 DEC 150.8 85.9 44.4 19.5 14.8 9.8 2013.0007 JAN 146.5 84.2 42.4 20.5 14.9 10.1 2013.0840 FEB 142.9 82.9 41.5 22.1 15.3 10.6 2013.1673 MAR 142.2 81.9 41.2 23.5 15.6 10.6 2013.2507 APR 138.9 80.4 39.2 24.1 15.8 10.8 2013.3340 MAY 136.8 78.7 34.7 25.3 16.1 10.9 2013.4173 JUN 135.9 76.9 33.8 25.8 16.3 11.1 2013.5007 JUL 132.9 75.3 35.3 25.0 16.3 11.4 2013.5840 AUG 129.3 74.0 34.6 24.9 16.2 11.6 2013.6673 SEP 125.3 72.8 32.7 24.1 16.2 11.7 2013.7507 OCT 121.0 71.6 31.7 22.2 16.1 11.7 2013.8340 NOV 117.5 70.3 30.8 22.5 16.2 11.9 2013.9173 DEC 115.3 68.5 29.3 23.2 16.3 11.7 2014.0007 JAN 111.4 66.6 27.6 23.3 16.3 10.9 2014.0840 FEB 104.9 64.3 26.5 22.8 16.1 10.6 2014.1673 MAR 98.0 62.0 26.2 22.1 15.9 10.7 2014.2507 APR 94.1 60.0 26.5 22.0 15.9 10.7 2014.3340 MAY 93.1 58.3 25.7 22.9 16.1 10.6 2014.4173 JUN 92.2 56.8 24.2 23.8 16.4 10.7 2014.5007 JUL 89.9 55.4 24.3 24.0 16.6 10.7 2014.5840 AUG 87.6 53.7 23.8 24.0 16.8 10.6 2014.6673 SEP 83.8 52.0 22.7 24.0 16.9 10.5 2014.7507 OCT 80.3 50.5 21.8 23.6 16.9 10.2 2014.8340 NOV 76.6 48.8 20.4 22.7 16.9 10.3 2014.9173 DEC 71.1 46.9 18.9 22.9 16.8 10.5 2015.0007 JAN 69.8 45.2 16.7 23.1 16.9 11.3 2015.0840 FEB 70.3 44.0 14.9 23.2 17.2 11.8 2015.1673 MAR 69.9 42.9 13.7 22.6 17.3 11.9 2015.2507 APR 69.7 41.6 11.8 21.6 17.2 12.1 2015.3340 MAY 68.9 40.1 10.3 21.3 17.1 12.2 2015.4173 JUN 66.9 38.7 9.3 21.8 16.9 12.4 2015.5007 JUL 64.3 37.3 8.5 21.8 16.7 13.2 2015.5840 AUG 61.0 35.9 7.7 22.2 16.8 13.0 2015.6673 SEP 56.5 34.5 7.6 22.6 16.9 12.7 2015.7507 OCT 52.1 33.0 7.7 22.4 16.9 13.0 2015.8340 NOV 49.0 31.9 7.3 22.4 16.7 12.7 2015.9173 DEC 49.9 31.0 7.3 22.8 16.5 12.4 2016.0007 JAN 49.0 30.0 7.2 23.0 16.1 12.0 2016.0840 FEB 46.4 28.7 7.1 23.6 15.8 11.1 2016.1673 MAR 44.1 27.3 6.5 24.2 15.6 10.4 2016.2507 APR 42.0 26.2 6.3 25.0 15.5 10.5 2016.3340 MAY 41.0 25.3 5.9 25.5 15.5 10.6 2016.4173 JUN 39.5 24.2 5.4 25.7 15.5 10.5 2016.5007 JUL 38.9 23.3 5.0 25.6 15.4 10.6 2016.5840 AUG 38.3 22.3 4.4 25.0 15.3 10.9 2016.6673 SEP 37.9 21.5 3.7 24.1 15.1 11.0 2016.7507 OCT 37.1 20.4 3.5 23.1 14.9 11.2 2016.8340 NOV 36.1 19.5 3.4 22.6 15.0 11.1 2016.9173 DEC 34.9 18.7 3.2 22.2 15.2 11.0 2017.0007 JAN 33.5 17.9 3.2 21.9 15.4 11.1 2017.0840 FEB 31.8 16.9 2.6 21.5 15.5 11.3 2017.1673 MAR 29.9 16.0 1.9 20.8 15.5 11.4 2017.2507 APR 27.1 15.2 1.5 20.0 15.3 11.4 2017.3340 MAY 24.6 14.2 1.4 20.1 15.1 11.7 2017.4173 JUN 22.2 13.0 1.1 20.2 14.9 11.9 2017.5007 JUL 20.3 11.8 0.7 19.9 14.7 11.6 2017.5840 AUG 19.2 10.8 0.5 19.5 14.6 11.5 2017.6673 SEP 19.0 10.0 0.4 19.0 14.6 11.1 2017.7507 OCT 18.5 9.3 0.4 18.2 14.6 10.6 2017.8340 NOV 18.2 8.7 0.3 17.3 14.5 9.8 2017.9173 DEC 16.8 8.2 0.2 17.4 14.4 9.4 2018.0007 JAN 15.9 7.7 0.1 17.5 14.3 9.3 2018.0840 FEB 15.9 7.2 0.0 17.6 14.2 9.3 2018.1673 MAR 15.1 6.7 0.0 17.6 14.1 9.3 2018.1673 MAR 15.1 6.7 0.0 17.6 14.1 9.3