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Hurricane Season 2012: System 99S (Southern Indian Ocean)
01.06.12
 
MODIS captured an image of System 99S on January 6 at 1134 UTC (6:34 a.m. EST) › View larger image
NASA's Aqua satellite passed over System 99S on January 6 at 1134 UTC (6:34 a.m. EST) and captured an infrared image of the storm. It showed strong thunderstorms (whitest) building up around the center of circulation. The black area indicates no data.
Credit: NASA/NRL
System 99S Now Better Organized on NASA Satellite Data

The low pressure area near Madagascar now has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression this weekend, as it appeared to be consolidating and organizing on NASA satellite data today.

NASA's Aqua satellite passed over System 99S on January 6 at 1134 UTC (6:34 a.m. EST) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument captured an infrared image of the storm. It showed strong thunderstorms building up around the center of circulation. Bands of thunderstorms appear to be building east of the center.

At 1134 UTC, System 99S's maximum sustained winds were near 27 to 32 knots (31 to 37 mph/50 to 60 kmh) - right near tropical depression status (35 mph). The minimum central pressure was 1000 millibars. 99S was centered near 15.2 South latitude and 43.0 East longitude, about 380 miles west-northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar.

Because wind shear is light and sea surface temperatures are well over the 80F (26.6C) threshold for maintaining a tropical cyclone, 99S stands a good chance to develop.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center gives this a high chance of developing into a depression this weekend.

Text Credit: Rob Gutro
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.



Jan. 5, 2012

MODIS captured an image of the low called System 99S on January 5, 2012 at 1052 UTC (5:52 a.m. EST). › View larger image
NASA's Aqua satellite captured an image of the low called System 99S on January 5, 2012 at 1052 UTC (5:52 a.m. EST). System 99S is located in the Mozambique Channel, between the island nation of Madagascar and Mozambique on the African continent.
Credit: NASA/NRL
NASA Sees Developing Tropical Disturbance in Southern Indian Ocean

NASA's Aqua satellite imagery has helped forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center monitor a low pressure area called System 99S in the southern Indian Ocean as it develops.

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured an image of the low called System 99S on January 5, 2012 at 1052 UTC (5:52 a.m. EST). System 99S is located in the Mozambique Channel, between the island nation of Madagascar and Mozambique on the African continent. System 99S is centered near 15.2 South latitude and 43.0 East longitude, about 320 nautical miles northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar. When Aqua passed overhead, System 99S had maximum sustained winds near 20 knots (23 mph/37 kmh) and a minimum central pressure of 1007 millibars.

Today, the city of Ambilobe, located in northwestern Madagascar is reporting thunderstorms from System 99S and that's the forecast over the next couple of days, as System 99S is not expected to move too much. Ambilobe is in the district of the same name, which is a part of Diana Region.

The visible image from Aqua's MODIS instrument revealed that the low pressure area is somewhat elongated. There is a flareup of convection (rising air that condenses and forms the thunderstorms that make up a tropical cyclone) around the center of circulation. There are some signs that bands of thunderstorms may be developing - hinting at a sign of strengthening.

System 99S is battling wind shear as high as 20 knots (23 mph/37 kmh), but it's sitting in waters warm enough to provide energy and enhance convection (if winds cooperate). Sea surface temperatures need to be around 26.6 Celsius (80F), but they are as warm as 30 degrees Celsius (86 F).

Currently, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center gives System 99S a medium chance for developing into a tropical depression in the next day.

Text Credit: Rob Gutro
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.