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Nilofar (Arabian Sea)
October 31, 2014

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NASA Sees Remnants of Nilofar Go to Cyclone Graveyard

Wind shear has caused the demise of former Tropical Cyclone Nilofar in the northern Arabian Sea. NASA's Aqua satellite passed over Nilofar on Oct. 31 and captured an image that shows strong wind shear has pushed the bulk of clouds and showers away from Nilofar's center, basically sending the storm to its grave.

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured an image of the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Nilofar on Oct. 31 at 08:45 UTC (4:45 a.m. EDT). The image showed that the former tropical cyclone's clouds and showers were pushed northeast of the center from strong southwesterly wind shear. The clouds blanketed the Pakistan/India border. 

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued the final warning on Nilofar the previous day, Oct. 30 at 2100 UTC (5 p.m. EDT). At that time, Nilofar's maximum sustained winds had dropped to 35 knots and weakening fast. It was centered near 20.5 north latitude and 65.0 east longitude, about 281 miles south-southwest of Karachi, Pakistan. Nilofar was moving to the northeast and dissipating.

On Oct. 31, India's Regional Specialized Meteorological Service or RSMC forecast said Cyclone Nilofar is expected to bring moderate rainfall to many places over Kutch and Saurashtra with squally winds there and along and off the Gujarat coast during next 24 hours. Seas along the Gujurat coast are expected to be rough for the next day or two. For the full bulletin, visit: http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/cyclone_pdfs/indian_1414757342.... For updated forecasts, visit: http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in.

Nilofar is expected to be in its grave by the end of Halloween day, Oct. 31.

Rob Gutro
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center


[image-114]Oct. 30, 2014 - NASA Sees Cyclone Nilofar Looking More like a Comet than a Tropical Cyclone  

Tropical Cyclone Nilofar was closing in on the border between Pakistan and northwestern India on Oct. 30 when NASA's Terra satellite passed overhead from space. Wind shear continued to affect the storm making it appear more like a comet with a tail, than a tropical cyclone.

The MODIS or Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer instrument that flies aboard NASA's Terra satellite captured a visible image of Nilofar on Oct. 30 at 06:35 UTC (2:35 a.m. EDT). Nilofar was still being affected by southwesterly wind shear, which was blowing the clouds and showers to the northeast. In the MODIS image, thunderstorms surrounded the center of the storm making it look like the core of a comet. Wind shear was stretching out clouds and showers to the northeast of the center, making it look like a comet's tail. Those clouds over northwestern India were already bringing rain along with gusty winds to the region. Nilofar was already causing rough surf to coastlines from India and Pakistan west to Oman.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center noted that microwave satellite imagery showed a ragged eye, but the low-level center of circulation appears to be "unraveling."

The wind shear has been weakening Nilofar, and by Thursday, Oct. 30 at 900 UTC (5 a.m. EDT) maximum sustained winds had dropped below hurricane-strength to 50 knots (57.5 mph/92.6 kph) and are expected to weaken the storm to a depression by November 1. Nilofar was located near 20.2 north latitude and 64.3 east longitude, about 294 nautical miles east of Masirah Island. It was moving to the northeast at 5 knots (5.7 mph/9.2 kph).

On Oct. 30, the India Meteorological Department's Regionalized Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) forecast called for Nilofar to move northeastward and weaken into a depression over northeast Arabian Sea off the north Gujarat coast late (local time) on Oct. 31. 

The RSMC warned that Nilofar will bring "moderate rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Kutch and coastal districts of Saurashtra during next two days. Light to moderate rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls would occur over remaining districts of Saurashtra, the north Gujarat region and southwest Rajasthan during the same period."  Squally winds reaching 40 to 50 kph (24.8 mph to 31.0 mph) are expected off the Gujarat coast on Oct. 31.  

For updated forecasts and warnings, visit the RSMC website at: http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in.

Nilofar is expected to become a depression by Nov. 1 before making landfall near the border of Pakistan and northwestern India.

Rob Gutro
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center


[image-96]Oct. 29, 2014 - NASA Sees Tropical Cyclone Nilofar Being Affected by Wind Shear

Wind shear has kicked in and has been pushing clouds and showers away from Tropical Cyclone Nilofar's center. NASA's Aqua satellite captured an image that showed the effects of the shear on Oct. 29.

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured an image of Tropical Cyclone Nilofar on Oct. 29 at 09:00 UTC (5 a.m. EDT). Tropical Cyclone Nilofar is moving through the Arabian Sea. The image shows that clouds were being pushed to the northeast of the center of the storm, from strong southwesterly wind shear.

On Oct. 29 at 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT), Nilofar had maximum sustained winds near 90 knots (103.6 mph/166.7 kph) and slow weakening is expected over the next couple of days. Nilofar was centered near 19.5 north latitude and 62.5 east longitude, about 205 nautical miles (236 miles/380 km) east-southeast of Masirah Island. Nilofar was moving to the north-northeast at 6 knots (6.9 mph/11.1 kph).

India's Regional Specialized Meteorological Service or RSMC forecast said Cyclone Nilofar is expected to move northeastward and cross north Gujarat and the adjoining Pakistan coast around Naliya by the night time hours on Oct. 31, but as it approaches the Gujarat Coast it is expected to weaken to a depression. For the full bulletin, visit: http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/bulletin/rsmc.pdf. For updated forecasts, visit: http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in.

Although one of the computer forecast models calls for dry air to move into the system and possible dissipate it over the ocean, the consensus suggests a landfall. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast calls for Nilofar to weaken to a tropical storm and make landfall near the India/Pakistan border late on Oct. 31 (UTC).

Rob Gutro
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center


[image-69]Oct. 28, 2014 - NASA Gets a Stare from Cyclone Nilofar's 14 Mile-Wide Eye

Tropical Cyclone Nilofar developed an eye on Oct. 28 that seemed to stare at NASA's Terra satellite as it passed overhead in space. Warnings are already in effect from the India Meteorological Department as Nilofar is forecast to make landfall in northwestern India.

On Oct. 28 at 06:50 UTC (2:50 a.m. EDT) the MODIS instrument aboard Terra captured a visible image of Tropical Cyclone Nilofar after it developed an eye while moving north in the Arabian Sea. The 12 nautical mile (13.8 miles/22.2 km) wide eye was surrounded by powerful thunderstorms and bands of thunderstorms wrapped into the center from the eastern quadrant. A large band of thunderstorms stretched north-northeast of the center. The MODIS image showed that Nilofar was moving over open waters off-shore from Oman.

Tropical Cyclone Nilofar had maximum sustained winds near 115 knots (132 mph/213 kph) at 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT). Nilofar was centered near 17.1 north latitude and 61.8 east longitude, about 275 nautical miles (317 miles/509 km) southeast of Masirah Island. It was moving to the north at 9 knots (10.3 mph/16.6 kph). 

On Oct. 28, the India Meteorological Department's Regionalized Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) issued a Cyclone Alert, or "Yellow message" for north Gujarat coast. The bulletin noted that Nilofar was over the west-central Arabian Sea and was moving north while intensifying. It was about 640 miles (1,030 km) southwest of Karachi, Pakistan and 509.5 miles (820 km) east-southeast of Salalah, Oman. The forecast calls for Nilofar to move to the northeast and cross north Gujarat and the Pakistan coast around Nayila on Nov. 1.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast calls for Nilofar to drop below hurricane force as it approaches northwestern India on Oct. 31. Nilofar is expected to be a tropical storm at the time of landfall.

The RSMC warned that Nilofar will bring heavy rains and strong winds along coastal districts of Saurashtra and Kutch from Oct. 31 to Nov. 1. IMB forecasts sustained winds near 28 to 34 mph (45 to 55 kph) with higher gusts. Sustained winds off the Gujarat coast on Oct. 31 can be expected between 50 to 56 mph (80 and 90 kph) with gusts to 62 mph (100 kph) at the time of landfall. Coastal conditions will deteriorate as the cyclone approaches, creating rough surf and dangerous ocean swells.

For updated forecasts and warnings, visit the RSMC website at: http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in.

Rob Gutro
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center


[image-50]Oct. 27, 2014 - NASA's Aqua Satellite Eyeing Tropical Cyclone Nilofar in Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 04A continues to intensify and had been renamed Tropical Cyclone Nilofar when NASA's Aqua satellite passed overhead on Oct. 27.

The MODIS instrument aboard Aqua captured a visible image of Nilofar that showed a ring of strong thunderstorms around the center of circulation and bands of thunderstorms wrapping into the low-level center from the east and west.

Nilofar attained hurricane strength on Oct. 27, when maximum sustained winds were near 75 knots (86 mph/139 kph) at 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT). Nilofar was centered near 15.2 north latitude and 62.2 east longitude, about 381 nautical miles south-southeast of Masirah Island and was crawling at 2 knots (3.73 mph/3.7 kph) to the west-northwest.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center expects Nilofar to meander in a northerly direction for a couple of days before taking a more northwesterly path toward northwestern India where it is expected to make landfall on Oct. 31.

Rob Gutro
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center

Aqua image of Nilofar
NASA's Aqua satellite captured this image of Tropical Cyclone Nilofar (04A) in the Arabian Sea on Oct. 27 at 9:10 UTC (5:10 a.m. EDT).
Image Credit: 
NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team
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Aqua image of Nilofar
NASA's Aqua satellite captured this image on Oct. 31 at 08:45 UTC (4:45 a.m. EDT) as the Remnants of Cyclone Nilofar were ripped apart by wind shear in the Arabian Sea.
Image Credit: 
NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team
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NASA's Terra satellite captured this image on Oct. 28 at 06:50 UTC (2:50 a.m. EDT) as Tropical Cyclone Nilofar was moving north in the Arabian Sea.
NASA's Terra satellite captured this image on Oct. 28 at 06:50 UTC (2:50 a.m. EDT) as Tropical Cyclone Nilofar was moving north in the Arabian Sea.
Image Credit: 
NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team
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Aqua image of Nilofar
NASA's Aqua satellite captured this image on Oct. 29 at 09:00 UTC (5 a.m. EDT) as Tropical Cyclone Nilofar moved through the Arabian Sea toward a landfall in northwestern India.
Image Credit: 
NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team
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NASA's Terra satellite captured this image on Oct. 30 at 06:35 UTC (2:35 a.m. EDT) as Tropical Cyclone Nilofar was approaching the Pakistan/India border.
NASA's Terra satellite captured this image on Oct. 30 at 06:35 UTC (2:35 a.m. EDT) as Tropical Cyclone Nilofar was approaching the Pakistan/India border.
Image Credit: 
NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team
Image Token: 
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Page Last Updated: October 31st, 2014
Page Editor: Lynn Jenner