Tropical Storm Irwin is the Sole Survivor Among the Tropical "Ruins"
Hurricane Season 2011: Tropical Depression 12E (Eastern Pacific Ocean)
Satellite data today, October 14, 2011, shows that only Tropical Storm Irwin survives today and is now headed back to open waters in the Eastern Pacific. Irwin is the sole survivor of a tropical onslaught from earlier this week when Hurricane Jova and Tropical Depression 12E made landfall in Mexico. 12E's remnants are now trying to re-assemble in the Caribbean Sea.
NOAA's GOES-11 satellite captured an image that includes the eastern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and shows Tropical Storm Irwin and all of the remnants and possible developing tropical cyclones in both ocean basins today, Oct. 14, 2011 at 7:45 a.m. EDT. The image was created at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. by the NASA/NOAA GOES Project. In the image, Irwin appears as a rounded area of clouds south of the Baja California, Mexico.
At 11 a.m. EDT on Oct. 14, Irwin had weakened again. Maximum sustained winds were near 40 mph (65 kmh). It was located about 165 miles (265 km) west of Manzanillo, Mexico, near 18.6 North and 106.8 West. It was moving slowly to the south at 3 mph (6 kmh) and is expected speed up and move to the south-southwest this weekend.
Infrared satellite imagery shows that the convection (rising air that forms the thunderstorms that make up Irwin) appears to be shapeless. Infrared data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite showed cloud top temperatures have warmed, indicating they're falling. That means there's less energy/uplift in the storm, and it's weakening.
Irwin is dealing with two factors that are sapping its strength: winds and cooler waters. Specifically, increased wind shear, and the cold water stirred up from the ocean bottom from the earlier passage of Hurricane Jova. When water temperatures fall below 80 Fahrenheit (26.6 Celsius), a tropical cyclone starts weakening, because there's not as much evaporation and convection happening to support it. The National Hurricane Center expects Irwin to weaken into remnant low by early next week.
Another developing low, "Low #1" for reference is officially not yet numbered, formed offshore from Central America. Low #1 appears disorganized in the GOES-11 image as an elongated area of clouds. It is, in fact, an elongated area of low pressure (called a trough), and its off the coast of southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador. Those clouds are producing showers and thunderstorms. Because the National Hurricane Center expects little movement over the weekend, those areas should expect locally heavy rainfall and flooding. Low #1 has a 10% chance of development over the weekend of Oct. 15-16.
Moving into the Atlantic Ocean basin is the remnants of Tropical Depression 12E (TD12E). They're centered near 17 North and 85 West. TD12E made landfall from the eastern Pacific and crossed over into the western Caribbean Sea. It is also a trough, and stretches from Central America, over the northwestern Caribbean Sea to Cuba. TD12E's remnants are producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms and conditions will allow for slow development. There's a 20% chance this low will become a tropical depression over the weekend.
Further east in the Atlantic is System 94L. It is centered near 28.0 North and 72.4 West about 350 miles west of Bermuda. Like the remnants of TD12E, it also has a 20% chance of development this weekend. During the morning of Oct. 14 showers and thunderstorms became a little more concentrated, according to the National Hurricane Center. Don't expect too much for System 94L, though. Upper-level winds are becoming more hostile and System 94L is expected to merge with the cold front sweeping through the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern U.S. today.
Basically, GOES-11 shows that Irwin is the only active and named tropical system amid the tropical ruins today.
Rob Gutro, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
, Greenbelt, Md.
October 13, 2011
Satellites View Three Dying Tropical Systems in Eastern Pacific
Three tropical systems in the eastern Pacific Ocean: Tropical Depression Irwin, Post-tropical cyclone Jova, and the remnants of Tropical Depression 12E all appeared to be fading on NASA satellite imagery today.
NASA's Aqua satellite passed over the eastern Pacific at 4:41 a.m. EDT, Thursday, Oct. 13, and captured an infrared image of Tropical Depression Irwin still in open waters and the remnants of post-tropical cyclone Jova inland over central Mexico. Irwin still had some strong convection (rapidly rising air that condenses and forms thunderstorms that make up a tropical cyclone) in a very small area, while all of the punch (strong convection) was now missing from post tropical cyclone Jova. Cloud top temperatures in Irwin were still near -63F/-52C in that small area of strong convection, while cloud tops in Jova have warmed and weakened.
That small area of disorganized convection seen in the AIRS image is enabling Irwin to still be classified as a tropical depression. The National Hurricane Center noted today that "the system is on the verge of losing the convective requirement of a tropical cyclone, and Irwin is expected to become a remnant low within 24 hours."
At 5 a.m. EDT today, Oct. 13, Irwin's maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph (55 kmh). It was located about 230 miles (365 km) west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico near 18.3 North and 107.7 West. Irwin was moving to the northeast near 13 mph (20 kmh) and is expected to curve to the east then southeast, heading back toward the open ocean, where it is expected to fizzle out.
The remnants of post-tropical cyclone Jova dissipated over central Mexico. At 11 p.m. EDT last night, Oct. 12, the last known center of Jova was near 21.7 North and 104.2 West. At that time, Jova had maximum sustained winds near 25 knots (30 mph). By 10 a.m. EDT on Oct. 13, Jova's remnants were dissipating. Skies over Mazatlan, Mexico were mostly clear, however there were some towering cumulus clouds observed. Further south at Zacatecas Airport, Mexico, mostly cloudy skies prevailed. On the west coast, Puerto Vallarta reported overcast skies with some light drizzle.
During the morning (EDT) on Oct. 13, Tropical Depression 12E was inland over southeastern Mexico, including the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and Guatemala. It TD12E is now a broad area of low pressure and was seen on NOAA's GOES-11 satellite imagery. The GOES-11 satellite image was created by NASA's GOES Project at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. It showed that TD12E's clouds extended from southeastern Mexico eastward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The National Hurricane Center currently gives TD12E a "near zero percent" chance of regenerating.
Meanwhile, it is generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some of those thunderstorms contain heavy rainfall over southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan, Belize and Guatemala.
Rob Gutro, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.
October 12, 2011
NASA's Aqua Satellite Sees Hurricane Jova Battering Western Mexico, 12E Forms Behind
Hurricane Jova made landfall in western Mexico and continues to batter the region today, as newly formed Tropical Depression 12E lingers behind it. NASA's Aqua satellite provided a visible and infrared look at Jova, and an infrared look at 12E, both of which had some strong convection.
Convection is rapidly rising air that condenses and forms the thunderstorms that make up a tropical cyclone (generic name for hurricane, tropical storm or depression). When convection is strong, the thunderstorms they create typically have heavy rainfall, and that's what western Mexico is encountering from Jova today.
When NASA's Aqua satellite passed over Hurricane Jova, and developing System 99E during the afternoon of Oct. 11, it captured an infrared image of both storms from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument and a visible image of Jova from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument. System 99E later strengthened and organized into Tropical Depression 12E.
The visible image of Hurricane Jova from MODIS showed Jova was making landfall in western Mexico, and the eye was no longer visible. The infrared image from the AIRS instrument at 3:53 p.m. EDT showed Hurricane Jova over the Mexican coast, and farther to the southeast is newly formed Tropical Depression 12E, which still a depression when Aqua flew over it yesterday. Both tropical cyclones had large areas of strong thunderstorms, with cloud top temperatures colder than -63F, and heavy rain.
Since yesterday, Jova has continued to move farther inland and keeps weakening from the interaction with land. As always whenever a hurricane or tropical cyclone moves over land, heavy rainfall is a serious threat.
Today, Oct. 12, a hurricane warning is in effect for Punta San Telmo Northward to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, and a tropical storm warning is in effect from North of Cabo Corrientes to El Roblito, Mexico.
According to the National Hurricane Center, at 8 a.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Jova was located near latitude 20.3 north and longitude 105.0 west, about 30 miles (50 km) south-southeast of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. Jova's maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph, making it a Category one hurricane, but it is expected to weaken to tropical storm status later in the day. This hurricane winds only cover 30 miles in diameter, but tropical storm force winds cover 230 miles in diameter. Jova is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 kmh) and is expected to slow down. The forecast track takes Jova north past Tepic, Mazatlan, and Culican over the next day or two.
In addition to Hurricane Jova, Tropical Depression 12E (TD12E) is causing its own watches and warnings. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Barra de Tonala, Mexico southeastward to the Mexico/Guatemala border. At 8 a.m. EDT today, TD12E has maximum sustained winds near 35 mph (55 kmh) and it could become a tropical storm later today, according to the National Hurricane Center. It was located about 135 miles (220 km) southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico near latitude 15.1 north and longitude 93.5 west. The depression is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 kmh).
NASA AIRS infrared data showed deep convection becoming more widespread in bands of thunderstorms and west of the center of circulation, indicating strengthening is occurring. TD12E is expected to move inland tonight into the warning area.
Rob Gutro, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.