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Hurricane Season 2010: System 92L (Atlantic Ocean)
06.16.10
 
June 16, 2010

System 92L seen by GOES-13> View larger image
The GOES-13 satellite captured this visible image of System 92L (right, center) on June 16 at 11:45 UTC (7:45 a.m. EDT) as a small rounded area of cloudiness in the Atlantic. Hispanola and Cuba are seen in the far right of this image (hundreds of miles away). Credit: NASA GOES Project
System 92L's Chances for Tropical Development Extremely Diminished

The possibility that System 92L in the Atlantic Ocean will bloom into the Atlantic's first tropical storm is now minimal because of strong westerly winds.

The GOES-13 satellite captured a visible image of System 92L on June 16 at 11:45 UTC (7:45 a.m. EDT) and it appeared as a small rounded area of cloudiness in the Atlantic.

GOES-13 was launched by NASA and is now operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). NASA's GOES Project at the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. created the latest satellite image.

The showers and thunderstorms associated with the low pressure area known as System 92L have increased, but "strong westerly winds at upper levels are not making conditions favorable for tropical cyclone formation," according to the National Hurricane Center.

System 92L is located about 725 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. It is moving west-northwestward near 15 mph and will move northwestward.

The National Hurricane Center now gives System 92L a meager ten percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours because of those strong westerly winds.

Text credit: Rob Gutro/NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center



June 15, 2010

System 92L seen by GOES-13View larger image
The GOES-13 visible image showed the low as a swirl of clouds far north of eastern Brazil, and about 1,100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Western Africa is seen to the right on this image. Credit: NASA GOES Project
System 92L's Chances for Development Are Waning

Satellite imagery captured a visible look at System 92L earlier today, and it seems to be running into an environmental road block: upper level winds that are lessening its chances for development into a tropical cyclone.

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite called GOES-13 captured a visible image of System 92L on June 15 at 11:45 UTC (7:45 a.m. EDT). The GOES-13 visible image showed the low as a swirl of clouds far north of eastern Brazil and about 1,100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The showers and thunderstorms associated with the low have become limited this morning. System 92L continues moving west-northwestward at about 15 mph.

The National Hurricane Center noted that "Environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation during the next day or so." Therefore, the potential for development has decreased and the chances for development into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours have dropped from 50 percent yesterday to 30 percent today.

GOES-13 was launched by NASA and is now operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). NASA's GOES Project at the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. created the latest satellite image that shows System 92L in its weakening state.

Meanwhile, in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, forecasters continue to watch two areas for potential tropical cyclone development.

The first area is a low pressure area that has been nearly stationary about 350 miles west-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Because environmental conditions are expected to continue to allow for slow development (warm sea surface temperatures and light vertical wind shear), there's still a 30 percent chance this low could develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

The second area has an equally low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. It's a broad area of low pressure near the Gulf of Tehuantepec that continues to produce widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms.

Text credit: Rob Gutro/NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center



June 14, 2010

System 92L seen by AIRS> View larger image
This infrared image from the AIRS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite was taken on June 14 at 04:29 UTC (12:29 a.m. EDT). There are some high, cold thunderstorms (purple -74F/-58C/215 Kelvin) in some of the areas of convection (blue)/clouds. The deep orange false-color of the ocean surface is about 80F (300 Kelvin), warm enough to support tropical cyclone development. Credit: NASA JPL, Ed Olsen
System 92L in Atlantic Getting Organized in a Tropical Way

An area of low pressure referred to by meteorologists as "System 92L" in the Atlantic Ocean seems ripe for development and NASA infrared satellite imagery revealed areas in the low that have strong convection. Convection refers primarily to atmospheric motions in the vertical direction, or rising warm air that condenses and forms clouds.

NASA's Aqua satellite flew over the low pressure area on June 14 at 04:29 UTC (12:29 a.m. EDT). The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument detects heat (and cold), and provides a great snapshot of the temperatures associated with the developing low and the ocean waters that lay in its path.

The low pressure area getting better organized and AIRS infrared imagery revealed there are some high, cold, strong thunderstorms in some of the areas of the low. AIRS data showed that some of the cloud tops are as cold, or colder than -74 Fahrenheit (- 58 Celsius and 215 Kelvin). AIRS also provided a look at the sea surface temperatures in the direction that System 92L is moving, and noticed they are about 80 degrees Fahrenheit or warmer (300 Kelvin or 27 Celsius) , warm enough to support tropical cyclone development.

At 8 a.m. EDT on June 14, System 92L was located about 1425 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Looking at a map of the Atlantic, the low also sits far north of the eastern-most tip of Brazil. The center is difficult to determine but appears on NASA satellite imagery to be between 4 and 8 degrees North latitude and between 32 and 40 degrees West longitude.

The National Hurricane Center notes that "Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for development during the next day or so as the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about 15 mph. The low developed on Sunday, June 13 and was about 975 miles southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.

Because of favorable conditions for development, System 92L has a "high chance" for developing into a tropical depression, according to the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters there are giving 92L a "60 percent chance" of development in the next two days.

Meanwhile, in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, there are two areas that have small chances of development in the next 48 hours, but forecasters are keeping an eye on both of them.

The first area of cloudiness and showers are associated with a broad area of low pressure, that's about 350 miles west-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. This low is poorly organized, although it may develop slowly. Currently the National Hurricane Center gives it a "20 percent chance" of developing in the next 48 hours. The second area lies near the Gulf of Tehuantepec and is also poorly organized. If this low develops, it is expected to occur slowly. This system also has a 20 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.

Hurricane season has truly started. Forecasters now have lows in both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Ocean to keep an eye on this week.

Text credit: Rob Gutro/NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center