NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration

July 16, 2010

> View larger image
This infrared satellite image from NASA's Aqua satellite showed a small area of strong convection (purple) remaining in Tropical Depression 6E on July 15, where cloud top temperatures were colder than -63F.
Credit: NASA/JPL, Ed Olsen Once a Depression, 6E Now a Remnant, NASA Imagery Shows Little Strength Left

The storm known formerly as Tropical Depression 6E, or TD6E, has been downgraded into a remnant low pressure system in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. On July 16 when NASA's Aqua satellite flew over TD6E, the infrared imagery showed a small area of strong convection in the storm.

The image, captured on July 15 at 2105 UTC 5:05 p.m. EDT was captured when 6E was still a tropical depression. By July 16, 6E was a remnant low pressure area and had maximum sustained winds near 25 knots (28 mph). It was located near 18 North and 111 West hundreds of miles from the southwestern coast of Mexico. 6E was moving west-northwestward near 10 knots (11 mph). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 millibars.

On July 16, the National Hurricane Center indicated that scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring within 300 nautical miles in the western semicircle. On July 15, NASA infrared imagery showed the strongest convection to the south of the center of circulation.

6E is a large remnant low, about 600 nautical miles in diameter, and is being "stretched" and elongated because of strong vertical wind shear. It’s the wind shear, coupled with dry air and cooler waters (that 6E is moving into) that make strengthening back into a tropical storm very unlikely.

Text credit: Rob Gutro, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

---

July 15, 2010

> View larger image
This visible image from the GOES-11 satellite on July 15 at 1245 UTC (9:45 a.m. EDT) shows the disorganized clouds of Tropical Depression 6E more than 300 miles off of the western Mexican coast. The clouds farther west in the Pacific appear darker because daylight hasn't reached them yet.
Credit: NASA/GOES Project Tropical Depression 6-E Forms from System 96E, Struggling in Wind Shear

Yesterday, System 96E looked good for development and by 5 p.m. EDT that low pressure area had organized more to become Tropical Depression 6-E in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Today, July 15, the GOES-11 satellite captured a visible image of the depression as it struggles to organize further against wind shear.

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite called GOES-11 captured a visible image of Tropical Depression 6E (TD6E) more than 300 miles off the western Mexico coast, on July 15 at 1245 UTC (9:45 a.m. EDT).

By 5 a.m. EDT on July 15, TD6E was still poorly organized, as evidenced by the broken areas of clouds in the GOES-11 imagery. Moderate to strong vertical wind shear (winds that can tear a storm apart) are keeping the storm from developing more right now, and it is also causing the convection and showers to appear asymmetric. That moderate to strong wind shear is expected to wane about mid-day on Saturday, July 17, which may give Tropical Depression 6E a short window of time to strengthen for a brief time. As TD6E continues moving west-northwest over the weekend, it will move into cooler waters that will again sap the depression's strength.

TD6E had maximum sustained winds near 35 knots (38 mph) and was moving away from land in a west-northwestward direction at 9 mph. TD6E is expected to continue moving in the same general direction by forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Miami, Fla.

TD6E was located about 370 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, or 540 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California near 15.2 North and 108.3 West. Minimum central pressure was near 1007 millibars.

Satellite data reveals numerous moderate and isolated strong convection (rapidly rising air that forms the thunderstorms that power the storm) within 200 nautical miles on the west side of the center.

The NHC said that some strengthening could occur over the next couple of days, so for a short time it could become Tropical Storm Estelle.

Text credit: Rob Gutro, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center

---

July 14, 2010

> View larger image
This visible image on July 13 at 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT) from the GOES-11 satellite shows System 96E's circular area of clouds and showers off the southwestern coast of Mexico.
Credit: NASA/GOES Project The GOES-11 Satellite Sees System 96E Getting Tropically Organized

System 96E appears to be getting organized, and that's apparent in the latest visible imagery from the GOES-11 satellite.

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite known as GOES-11 keeps a watchful eye over the western U.S. and that includes the Eastern Pacific Ocean. The latest visible image from the GOES-11 satellite was captured on July 13 at 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT) and shows System 96E as a circular area of clouds and showers off the southwestern coast of Mexico. It is located about 300 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. That puts its center near 14.3 North and 104.0 West.

GOES is operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NASA's GOES Project, located at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. creates some of the satellite images from the GOES satellites.

System 96E's showers and thunderstorms are concentrated around its small low pressure center. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Fla. noted today, July 13 that "Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development of this disturbance over the next couple of days as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph."

The NHC gives System 96E a 50% chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. If System 96E does become a depression and then strengthens into a tropical storm, it would be named "Estelle."

Text credit: Rob Gutro, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center