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Hurricane Season 2009: Tropical Storm Patricia (Eastern Pacific)
10.15.09
 
October 15, 2009

Patricia's Remnants Breaking Up at Sea

Patricia's remnants are moving away from southern Baja California and out to sea, so the threat from any more rain in the extreme southern Baja is fading.

Patricia's remnants are located near 22 North Latitude and 113 West longitude. The remnants are moving west-southwest. Satellite data revealed no convection (rising air that creates thunderstorms) near the center of the former Patricia. Patricia is expected to fully dissipate into an "open trough," or elongated area of low pressure, by the weekend.

Forecasters are now watching another area in the Eastern Pacific, south of where Patricia lies. A low pressure area near 11 degrees North Latitude and 95 degrees West Longitude, just south of the Bay of Tehuantepec may develop into a tropical cyclone. It has scattered moderate to isolated showers and thunderstorms that stretch north of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to the Mexican coast between 10 degrees and 16 degrees North, and between 93 and 99 degrees West. There's a lot of moisture there, and little wind shear, making two ingredients necessary to create a tropical cyclone. Right now, there's a 50 percent chance that a tropical cyclone will develop there in the next 48 hours.

Text credit: Rob Gutro, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center



October 14, 2009

AIRS image of Patricia › View larger image
NASA's AIRS instrument captured this visible image of Patricia's remnants (bottom) on October 13 at 4:41 p.m. EDT, seen as the small round area of clouds at the southernmost tip of Baja California. Much more impressive is the massive storm system to the north that entered California from the Eastern Pacific. Credit: NASA JPL, Ed Olsen
Patricia Putters in the Pacific

Tropical Depression Patricia in the Eastern Pacific Ocean has now degenerated into a remnant low pressure area over the southernmost tip of Baja California.

The circulation associated with the Patricia's clouds and showers had maximum sustained winds near 30 mph at the time of the National Hurricane Center's last advisory on Wednesday, October 14 at 5 a.m. EDT. At that time, Patricia's center was located just 15 miles east-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Baja California, Mexico. That's near 22.8 North and 109.7 West. Cabo San Lucas is the southern-most city on the Baja California.

Fortunately, Patricia's remnants won't hang around the southern Baja, who are still picking up after soaking rains from tropical cyclones earlier in the season. Patricia's remnants are moving west-northwest near 6 mph and are expected to turn west and head out to sea where it will dissipate.

NASA's Aqua satellite flew over Patricia and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument captured a visible image of the storm's remnants on October 13 at 4:41 p.m. EDT. Patricia's remnants appeared as a small round area of clouds at the southernmost tip of Baja California. Much more impressive, however was the massive storm system to the north that entered California from the Eastern Pacific.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) used satellite data to determine that Patricia had been devoid of organized deep convection (and developing thunderstorms) since 2 p.m. EDT on October 13. The NHC forecasters don't expect Patricia to regenerate even though she'll be moving back over open waters, because she'll run into dry air and cooler sea surface temperatures. Those are two factors that weaken tropical cyclones. Patricia's remnants are expected to dissipate by the weekend.

Text credit: Rob Gutro, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center



October 13, 2009

Image of Patricia> Click to view movie
This movie was created using satellite imagery from Oct. 9-13 from GOES-11. It shows Tropical Storm Patricia forming some 400 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California and tracking north. The movie ends on October 13 at 1500 UTC (9 a.m. PDT) when Patricia's clouds have overspread the southern tip of the Baja. Credit: NASA GOES Project
Baja Watching Tropical Storm Patricia in the latest GOES-11 Satellite Movie

The nineteenth tropical cyclone of the Eastern Pacific formed over this past weekend, and strengthened into Tropical Storm Patricia. The GOES-11 satellite captured Patricia from her "birth" several hundred miles south of Baja California, to her track there today, Tuesday, October 13.

The National Hurricane Center has posted a tropical storm warning for the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula from Buenavista to Agua Blanca, including Cabo San Lucas. A tropical storm warning means that Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, generally within 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Baja California peninsula along the east coast from north of Buenavista to La Paz And along the west coast from north of Agua Blanca to Santa Fe. A Tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across the extreme southern portion of Baja California.

On October 13 at 11 a.m. PDT, Patricia had maximum sustained winds near 60 mph with higher gusts and could strengthen a little. Patricia was 120 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California, near 21.4 North and 109.0 West. She's moving north-northeast near 7 mph, but is expected to turn away from the Baja toward the northwest later today or tonight. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 millibars.

As Patricia was approaching the southern tip of Baja California, the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-11) has been watching her. GOES-12 is operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the NASA's GOES Project, located at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. created a movie of Patricia's approach to the Baja over the past weekend.

This movie was created using satellite imagery from Oct. 9-13 from GOES-11. It shows Tropical Storm Patricia forming some 400 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California and tracking north. The movie ends on October 13 at 1500 UTC (9 a.m. PDT) when Patricia's clouds have overspread the southern tip of the Baja.

Patricia looks somewhat disorganized this morning and the overall circulation also appears to be elongated from north to south.

The National Hurricane Center noted that Patricia is currently in a light vertical wind shear environment over warm water...so there remains the possibility of strengthening. The new track brings the center closer to Southern Baja California with the closest approach between 8 p.m. PDT tonight and 8 a.m. PDT Wednesday morning.

Text credit: Rob Gutro, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center