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Hurricane Season 2007: Kiko (Eastern Pacific)
10.16.07
 
Kiko's Remnants Off the Coast of Baja California

Satellite image of Kiko
Click image for enlargement.

On Friday, October 26, as fires still rage from southern to central California, what was Tropical Depression Kiko has dissipated into a remnant low pressure system. Kiko's remnants are at sea in the eastern Pacific, too far away to help the firefight.

The National Hurricane Center noted at 8:05 a.m. PDT on Oct. 26 that Kiko's remnants were located near 19 degrees north latitude and 122 west longitude. Kiko's remnants are due west of Baja California, located in the lower center of this image, and are not reaching the coast. There are scattered showers over the open ocean associated with these remnants.

This image from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-11 (GOES-11) shows Kiko's remnant clouds to the west of Baja California. This image was created on Oct. 26 at 8:45 a.m. PDT (15:00 UTC) by NASA's GOES Project, located at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.

Rob Gutro
Goddard Space Flight Center
Image credit: NASA GOES Project




Tropical Depression Kiko So Close But So Far From California Fires

Satellite image of Kiko
Click image for enlargement.

The California coast is suffering from massive fires from Malibu to San Diego and down into the Baja California, while Tropical Depression Kiko lingers to the south of the Baja California and out of reach. What's worse is Kiko is heading west into the open waters of the eastern Pacific.

NASA's Aqua satellite carries the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument, which takes infrared, microwave and visible satellite images. This image show both the heat and cold associated with the major fires and the cold cloud tops of Tropical Depression Kiko southwest of Baja California.

The top infrared satellite image is from Oct. 23 at 20:53 UTC (1:53 p.m. PDT). The AIRS infrared images show the temperature of the cold cloud tops and the surface of the warm Earth in cloud-free regions. The lowest temperatures (in purple and dark blue) are high, cold cloud tops associated with Kiko's showers and thunderstorms southwest of Baja California. The infrared signal does not penetrate through clouds. Where there are no clouds the AIRS instrument reads the infrared signal from the surface of the Earth, revealing warmer temperatures (red).

In this image, central and south coastal California, and the Baja California are very dark red, indicative of the fires ranging up and down the coast. On Oct. 23, officials said that across Southern California, more than 1,300 homes had been destroyed.

A great frustration to firefighters and homeowners is the out-of-reach tropical depression that could bring life-saving rains. The cold clouds and showers (in blue and purple) associated with Tropical Depression Kiko are southwest of the Baja, and Kiko is moving out to sea.

Satellite image of Kiko
Click image for enlargement.

This visible AIRS image from the same time clearly shows the smoke from the raging fires streaming off the California coast into the eastern Pacific. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Kiko is situated to the southwest, just out of reach.

The National Weather Service in San Diego calls for northwest winds to blow between 10 and 15 mph tonight before becoming calm. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. On Wednesday, Oct. 24, morning calm winds are forecast to become westerly between 5 and 10 mph. Further north, the National Weather Service forecast for Malibu calls for winds in the evening of Oct. 23 and overnight to blow from the northeast 6 to 9 mph increasing to between 17 and 20 mph. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph. On Oct 24, winds will be from the north-northeast between 11 and 14 mph, and taper to light winds.

Where is Kiko?

On Tuesday, Oct. 23 at 15:00 UTC (8:00 a.m. PDT), Kiko was centered near 18.6 degrees north latitude and 113.0 degrees west longitude in open waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean. Kiko had maximum sustained winds near 25 knots (29 mph) with higher gusts and is moving west, away from California, at 11 knots (13 mph). Kiko has a minimum central pressure of 1007 millibars.

Because Kiko is moving westward into the open waters of the eastern Pacific, the waters there are cooler than they are along the coast. That and increasing wind shear (winds that tear tropical cyclones apart) are expected to continue weakening Kiko into a remnant low in about 12 hours. Thereafter, Kiko's remnants are expected to move on a westward track until it dissipates.

Rob Gutro (From NHC reports)
Goddard Space Flight Center
Images credit: NASA/JPL




Kiko Still Kicking, But Has Finally Found a Direction…West!

After lingering off the western coast of Mexico for several days, Tropical Storm Kiko is finally kicking westward into the open waters of the Eastern Pacific Ocean.

On Monday, Oct. 22 at 8:00 a.m. PDT (1500 UTC) the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 19.7 north and longitude 108.9 west, with maximum sustained winds near 35 knots or 40 mph. Kiko is moving west near 5 knots (6 mph) and has an estimated minimum central pressure of 1002 millibars.




NASA's Aqua Satellite Looks at Kiko's Cloud Tops For Information

AIRS image of Kiko from October 22, 2007


In this infrared image from Oct. 22 at 8:17 UTC (1:17 a.m. PDT) of Tropical Storm Kiko was created by data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on NASA's Aqua satellite. Kiko's clouds are the blue and purple areas off the western Mexican coast. The blue areas show Kiko's clouds and rains. This AIRS image shows the temperature of the cloud tops or the surface of the Earth in cloud-free regions. The lowest temperatures (in purple) are associated with high, cold cloud tops that make up the top of the storm. The infrared signal does not penetrate through clouds. Where there are no clouds the AIRS instrument reads the infrared signal from the surface of the Earth, revealing warmer temperatures (red).

What are the Cloud Tops Telling Scientists?

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) pays attention to cloud tops in storms to help with their intensity forecasts. At 8:00 a.m. PDT on Monday, Oct. 22, the NHC noted "Cloud top temperatures associated with the convection have been rapidly warming during the last 6 hours and lightning data indicate that there has not been any new convective development during the last hour or two. Satellite imagery suggests that the remaining cold cloud tops are primarily high-level cirrus debris. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt (40 mph) based on the deteriorating satellite appearance. Kiko's anticipated track over progressively cooler waters and into a more dry/stable airmass should result in continued weakening."

AIRS visible image of Kiko from October 22, 2007


Just three days before on Oct. 19, Tropical Storm Kiko was sitting off the coast of Mexico and not moving. This AIRS visible image was taken at 20:17 UTC (1:17 p.m. PDT) on Oct. 19. At that time Kiko was located at 17.5 north latitude and 105.5 west longitude and had sustained winds of 45 knots (52 mph) while sitting still. Credit: image - NASA/JPL; story - Rob Gutro (From NHC reports), Goddard Space Flight Center



Tropical Storm Kiko Paralleling the Western Mexican Coast

Tropical Storm Kiko was keeping out to sea in the Eastern Pacific Ocean on Friday, Oct. 19, and is expected to stay at sea for another day or two as high pressure builds over mainland Mexico.

At 8:00 a.m. PDT, on Oct. 19, Kiko was a little stronger, with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph (75 km/hr) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. The center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.1 north and longitude 105.1 west or about 140 miles (230 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and about 510 miles (815 km) southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for portions of the pacific coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo northwestward to Cabo Corrientes.

Kiko is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/hr) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. This motion should keep the center just offshore and moving roughly parallel to the pacific coast of Mexico. High pressure building over northern Mexico during the next 24-48 hours should steer Kiko slowly northwestward.

AIRS image of Kiko from October 19, 2007


This image from NASA's QuikSCAT satellite was taken at 9:09 p.m. EDT Oct. 17, (1:09 UTC on Oct. 18). It depicts Kiko's wind speed in color and wind direction with small barbs. White barbs point to areas of heavy rain. The highest wind speeds, are shown in purple, which indicate winds over 40 knots (46 mph). Mexico is the dark gray area to the right of the storm. Credit: Image - NASA/JPL; story -Rob Gutro, Goddard Space Flight Center



Tropical Storm Warnings Up on Mexican Pacific Coast for Kiko

AIRS image of Tropical Storm Kiko on October 18, 2007


+ Click for larger image

Tropical Storm Kiko couldn't seem to figure out where it wanted to go for awhile, as it stayed stationary off the western Mexican coast, but now has found a direction. That direction is north into the mainland west coast of Mexico.

On Thursday, Oct. 18, 2007 at 8 a.m. PDT, the Mexican government issued a tropical storm warning for the pacific coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Manzanillo. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Above normal tides, accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves are possible in the warning area in regions of onshore flow.

At that time, Kiko's center was located near 16.4 degrees north latitude and 103.4 degrees north longitude, or about 190 miles (305 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico, and about 150 miles (240 km) southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.

Kiko had maximum sustained winds near 35 knots (40 mph) with higher gusts and had a minimum estimated minimum central pressure near 1000 millibars.

Kiko was moving northeast at 8 knots (9 mph). A turn toward the north and a slower forward speed are expected during the next 24 hours. This motion could bring the center of Kiko near the coast of Mexico on Friday, Oct. 19.

In the infrared image at the top from Oct. 18 at 8:41 UTC (1:41 a.m. PDT) of Tropical Storm Kiko was created by data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on NASA's Aqua satellite. Kiko's clouds are the blue and purple areas off the western Mexican coast. This AIRS image shows the temperature of the cloud tops or the surface of the Earth in cloud-free regions. The lowest temperatures (in purple) are associated with high, cold cloud tops that make up the top of the typhoon. The infrared signal does not penetrate through clouds. Where there are no clouds the AIRS instrument reads the infrared signal from the surface of the Earth, revealing warmer temperatures (red). Credit: NASA/JPL; story credit Rob Gutro from NHC reports



NASA Satellite Sees Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Kiko Getting Organized

Satellite image of Tropical Storm Kiko
Click image to enlarge.

The fifteenth tropical depression of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season became Tropical Storm Kiko on Oct. 15, and has proceeded to get more organized, as revealed by NASA satellite images. Kiko currently sits in the Eastern Pacific Ocean far off the western Mexican coast.

NASA's Aqua satellite carries the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument, and AIRS has noticed better organization in the formation of Tropical Storm Kiko from Oct. 15 to Oct. 16.

The top infrared satellite image is from Oct. 16 at 8:53 UTC (4:53 a.m. EDT) when Kiko developed a more circular shape from the previous day. The AIRS images show the temperature of the cloud tops or the surface of the Earth in cloud-free regions. The lowest temperatures (in purple) are associated with high, cold cloud tops associated with the lingering showers and thunderstorms. The infrared signal does not penetrate through clouds. Where there are no clouds the AIRS instrument reads the infrared signal from the surface of the Earth, revealing warmer temperatures (red).

Satellite image of Tropical Storm Kiko
Click image to enlarge.

This earlier AIRS image from Oct. 15 at 20:41 UTC (4:41 p.m. EDT) doesn't clearly show a circular pattern to the clouds. At that time, the National Hurricane Center noted in their discussion that "the cloud pattern is not well organized," and that "the cloud pattern consists of a cyclonically curved convective band with the center removed from the convection (rising air that forms clouds and rain)."

Where is Kiko?

On Tuesday, Oct. 16 at 15:00 UTC (11:00 a.m. EDT), Kiko was centered are 14.2 degrees north latitude and 108.5 degrees west longitude, near Isla Socorro (Socorro Island), Mexico. That's about 400 miles east of Puerto Vallarta on mainland Mexico. Kiko had maximum sustained winds near 35 knots (40 mph) with higher gusts and isn't moving. Kiko is expected to remain stationary for another 24-48 hours.

Rob Gutro (From NHC reports)
Goddard Space Flight Center
Images credit: NASA/JPL




Eastern Pacific Ties Atlantic for Tropical Depressions

Satellite image of Tropical Depression 15E
Click image for enlargement.

The Eastern Pacific Ocean hurricane season has now officially tied the Atlantic Ocean hurricane season, with fifteen tropical depressions each.

Tropical Depression 15-E (TD#15-E) was born around 8:00 p.m. PDT on Sunday, Oct. 14, southwest of Manzillo, Mexico. By 10:00 a.m. PDT on Monday, Oct. 15, TD#15-E was located near 15.2 degrees north latitude and 108.9 degrees west longitude.

Estimated minimum central pressure was 1003 millibars, and maximum sustained winds were near 30 knots (34 mph) with gusts to 40 knots (46 mph). The depression is forecast to move very little over the next couple of days.

This satellite image from NASA's QuikSCAT satellite was taken on Oct. 15 at 13:32 UTC (7:32 a.m. PDT) and depicts the wind speeds in TD#15-E. The center is indicated by the purple color. This image depicts wind speed in color and wind direction with small barbs. White barbs point to areas of heavy rain. The highest wind speeds, around the center, are shown in purple.

Rob Gutro (From NHC reports)
Goddard Space Flight Center
Image credit: NASA/JPL