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Hurricane Season 2007: Jaya (Western Pacific)
03.30.07
 
Tropical Cyclone Jaya Strikes Northeast Madagascar

Intense tropical cyclone Jaya made landfall on the northeast Madagascar coast on Tues., Apr. 3, with sustained winds of at least 78 knots (90 mph). At 5:00 a.m. EDT (0900 UTC) on Tues., Apr. 3, Jaya was located near 14.6 degrees south latitude and 50.0 degrees east longitude, or about 330 miles northeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar. Movement was toward west-northwest at 11 knots (13 mph) and maximum sustained winds were near 80 knots (92 mph) with gusts to 100 knots (115 mph). Ocean wave heights near the storm center were estimated at 26 feet.

As Jaya moves further inland, it will rapidly lose intensity and likely turn to the southwest before dissipating by Thurs., Apr. 5. However, forecasters warn the storm may re-intensify once the low-level circulation moves away from land and emerges over the Mozambique Channel.

Photo of Tropical Cyclone Jaya taken by Aqua on April 3, 2007.


This photo-like image of tropical cyclone Jaya was taken by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite on Tues., Apr. 3 at 6:15 a.m. EDT (1015 UTC). At this time, Jaya had been weakening for several hours, and lost some its organization and symmetrical shape. The bumpy, thicker appearance of the clouds over northeast Madagascar is indicative of strong thunderstorms. Image credit: MODIS Rapid Response Team/Goddard Space Flight Center. Caption credit: Mike Bettwy, RSIS/Goddard Space Flight Center. + More on Jaya


New Cyclone Quickly Gaining Strength in the Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclone Jaya formed rapidly in the southwest Indian Ocean on Fri., Mar. 30, and forecasters anticipate additional strengthening over the next few days. At 5:00 a.m. EDT (0900 UTC) on Fri., Mar. 30, Jaya was located near 13.3 degrees south latitude and 66.7 degrees east longitude, or about 805 miles northeast of La Reunion. Movement was toward west at 7 knots (8 mph) and maximum sustained winds were near 45 knots (52 mph) with gusts to 55 knots (63 mph). Ocean wave heights near the storm center were estimated at 15 feet.

Satellite imagery shows Jaya has developed a distinct center of circulation with intense thunderstorms. Although rather small in size, Jaya organized rapidly and is expected to continue tracking westward while steadily intensifying. As the cyclone moves over ocean waters with temperatures near 29 degrees Celsius (84 degrees Fahrenheit) and encounters favorable atmospheric conditions for strengthening, forecasters expect winds to increase to 80 knots (92 mph) by Sun., Apr. 1.

This map shows the anticipated path and strength of tropical cyclone Jaya over the next 48 hours.


This map shows the anticipated path and strength of tropical cyclone Jaya over the next 48 hours. It indicates that Jaya should gradually gain intensity and reach typhoon strength by early Sat., Mar 31 (filled, pink circle). Previous cyclone positions are in black; forecast positions are in pink. Dashed lines outline the region ships are urged to avoid. Image credit: JTWC. Caption credit: Mike Bettwy, RSIS/Goddard Space Flight Center.

 
 
Mike Bettwy
Goddard Space Flight Center