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Fred (Atlantic Ocean)

Fred Fades in Far Atlantic  

Before Tropical Storm Fred fizzled in the Eastern Atlantic, NASA’s Global Hawk flew overhead on September 5 and the Global Hawk’s imagery was used to create a movie of the flyover as part of NOAA’s SHOUT mission. 

On Sunday, Sept. 6. at 5 a.m. EDT (0900 UTC) the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 43.2 West. The depression was moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 kph). Maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph (55 kph). By 5 p.m. EDT (2100 UTC) on September 6, Fred’s maximum sustained winds dropped to 20 knots (23 mph/37 kph) and were weakening quickly. At that time, the National Hurricane Center issued their final warning on Fred. Fred finally succumbed to adverse atmospheric conditions and was no longer a tropical cyclone.

For information about NOAA’s SHOUT mission, visit: uas.noaa.gov/shout/.

Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

Sep. 04, 2015 – NASA Sees Tropical Depression Fred Fading, New Storm Developing

GOES image of Fred
This visible image of the Eastern Atlantic Ocean on Sept. 4 at 7:45 a.m. EDT shows Tropical Depression Fred winding down and another low pressure area that just came off the West African coast.
Credits: NASA/NOAA GOES Project

The Eastern Atlantic Ocean continues to generate storms, and as satellites are watch Tropical Storm Fred fade over the next couple of days, a new area of low pressure has moved off the coast of western Africa.

A visible image of the Eastern Atlantic Ocean on Sept. 4 at 7:45 a.m. EDT showed Tropical Depression Fred as a tight swirl of low clouds, with clouds and storms only southeast of the center. The GOES image also showed the new low pressure area called System 91L just off the coast of western Africa. The GOES image was created by the NASA/NOAA GOES Project at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. 

Where is Fred?

At 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 22.3 North and longitude 38.3 West. That puts the center of Fred about 1,275 miles (2,050 km) southwest of the Azores islands. Fred was moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 kph), and is expected to turn toward the northwest by early on September 6. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 millibars.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 kph), and is expected to weaken to a remnant low pressure area by September 5 because it is in an area of strong upper-level winds.

Another System Developing Behind Fred

To the southeast of Fred, another area of low pressure in a tropical wave designated System 91L, had moved off the coast of western Africa. At 0600 UTC (2 a.m. EDT) the center of System 91L was located near 10.7 North latitude and 18.1 West longitude, a couple of hundred miles off the west coast of Africa. System 91L is expected to move south of the Cape Verde Islands late on September 4 and 5.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted that the low continues to show signs of organization and has the potential for some development as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next few days. NHC gives System 91L a 40 percent chance to develop in the next two days and 60 percent chance in five days.

So, forecasters will watch as Fred fizzles and 91L ramps up over the next several days.

Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

Sep. 4 – Update #1 – NASA’s 3-D GPM Flyby of Tropical Storm Fred

NASA’s 3-D GPM Flyby of Tropical Storm Fred

The Global Precipitation Measurement or GPM mission core satellite passed over Fred when it was developing in the Eastern Atlantic early August 30 and saw “hot towers” in the storm, which hinted that the storm was intensifying.

Fred became the first Cape Verde hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic season when it was upgraded from a tropical storm on August 31, 2015 at 0600 UTC (2 a.m. EDT). The GPM core observatory satellite flew over on August 30, 2015 at 0236 UTC when Fred was forming from a tropical wave that moved off the African coast. Rainfall was measured by GPM’s Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) at the extreme rate of close to 128 mm (5.0 inches) per hour. Rainfall in towering convective storms at Fred’s center of circulation were providing the energy necessary for intensification into a hurricane. Three dimensional reflectivity data from GPM’s DPR showed that these “hot towers” had storm top heights reaching to 16.2 km (10.0 miles).

A “hot tower” is a tall cumulonimbus cloud that reaches at least to the top of the troposphere, the lowest layer of the atmosphere. It extends approximately 9 miles/14.5 km high in the tropics. These towers are called “hot” because they rise to such altitude due to the large amount of latent heat. Water vapor releases this latent heat as it condenses into liquid. Those towering thunderstorms have the potential for heavy rain. NASA research shows that a tropical cyclone with a hot tower in its eyewall was twice as likely to intensify within six or more hours, than a cyclone that lacked a hot tower.

GPM is managed by both NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency.

Animation Credit: NASA/SVS, Alex Kekesi
Text Credit: NASA/Goddard, Rob Gutro

Sep. 03, 2015 – NASA Shows Upper-Level Westerly Winds Affecting Tropical Storm Fred

AIRS image of Fred
NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this infrared look at Fred on Sept.2 at 1505 UTC (11:05 a.m. EDT). Westerly wind shear was pushing the thunderstorms to the east-southeast of the low-level center.
Credits: NASA JPL, Ed Olsen

Upper-level westerly winds have been affecting Tropical Storm Fred in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean and continue to do so today, September 3. Infrared imagery from NASA’s Aqua satellite showed the highest thunderstorms pushed southeast of the storm’s center.

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder or AIRS instrument that flies aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite gathers infrared data that reveals temperatures. When NASA’s Aqua satellite passed over Tropical Storm Fred on September 2 at 15:05 UTC (11:05 a.m. EDT), the AIRS data and showed some highest, coldest, strongest thunderstorms with cloud top temperatures near -63F/-53C were being pushed southeast of the center. 

On September 3, Forecaster Avila of the National Hurricane Center noted that a surge of strong upper-level westerly winds removed most of the convection from Fred overnight, and again the cyclone consists of a very vigorous swirl of low clouds.

At 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC) the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 34.1 West. That’s about 760 miles (1,225 km) west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Fred’s maximum sustained winds were near 40 mph (65 kph). Fred was moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 kph), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 millibars.

Fred is encountering strong upper-level winds, so weakening is forecast. The NHC expects Fred to become a post-tropical remnant low pressure area by tomorrow, September 4.

Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

Sep. 02, 2015 – NASA Sees Tropical Storm Fred Losing Its Punch

GOES image of Fred
At 10:45 a.m. EDT on Sept. 2, Tropical Storm Fred appeared as a tight swirl of clouds, devoid of strong thunderstorms in a GOES-East satellite image.
Credits: NASA/NOAA GOES Project

Tropical Storm Fred is losing its punch. Satellite imagery shows that there are no strong thunderstorms developing in the tropical storm indicating that the storm is weakening.

The RapidScat instrument that flies aboard the International Space Station measured Tropical Storm Fred’s winds on September 1 at 4 a.m. EDT. RapidScat saw that the strongest winds tightly circled the center and were on the northern side of the storm, as strong as 24 and 27 meters per second (53.6 mph/ 86.4 kph and 60.4/97.2 kph). 

On September 1 at 13:00 UTC (9 a.m. EDT) the MODIS instrument aboard NASA’s Terra satellite saw Tropical Storm Fred moving past the Cape Verde Islands. At that time, the strongest thunderstorms were northwest of the center. By September 2, those strong thunderstorms were hard to find on NOAA’s GOES- East satellite imagery taken at 10:45 a.m. EDT. Both the MODIS and the GOES images were created at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland

RapidScat image of Fred
NASA’s RapidScat instrument saw Fred’s strongest winds on Sept. 1 at 4 a.m. EDT tightly circled the center and were on the northern side, between 24 and 27 meters per second (53.6 to 60.4 mph/86.4 to 97.2 kph).
Credits: NASA/JPL, Doug Tyler

At 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC) on September 2 the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 30.9 West.  About 525 miles (845 km) west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Fred is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 kph), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days.

Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds dropped to near 45 mph (75 kph) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 millibars.

Satellite imagery on September 2 showed that Fred had been without deep convection (strong uplift in the atmosphere that creates thunderstorms that make up a tropical cyclone) since about 11 p.m. on September 1. The National Hurricane Center noted that Fred just consists of a tight swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. NHC Forecaster Brown noted “If organized deep convection does not return very soon, which appears unlikely, Fred will become a post-tropical cyclone this afternoon.  Strong westerly (wind) shear, marginal sea surface temperatures, and dry mid-level air should cause the circulation to gradually spin down during the next few days.”

Fred is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later in the day on Wednesday, September 2, 2015.

Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

Sep. 01, 2015 – NASA-NOAA Satellite Shows Fred Facing a Fizzling Future

Suomi NPP image of Fred
This visible image from NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite shows thunderstorms diminishing in Tropical Storm Fred on Sept. 1 at 11:04 a.m. EDT.
Credits: NASA/NOAA/NRL

Fred was a hurricane on August 31 and weakened to a tropical storm on September 1 after moving through the Cape Verde Islands and the storm faces more obstacles in the coming days. Visible imagery from NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite on September 1 showed a less organized storm than on the previous day.

Fred continues to quickly weaken. The strongest thunderstorms near the center of the storm decreased in coverage and have become less organized in visible imagery from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument aboard NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite. Suomi NPP flew over Fred on September 1 at 11:04 a.m. EDT. 

At 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC) on September 1, the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 27.0 West. That’s about 255 miles (410 km) northwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 kph), and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects additional weakening during the next 48 hours, and Fred is forecast to become a tropical depression by late Wednesday, September 2. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 millibars.

Fred was moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 kph), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days.

Fred faces more factors that will make it fizzle over the next several days. The tropical storm is expected to move into an area with increasing southwesterly wind shear (winds that can tear a tropical cyclone apart), some dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, and cooler sea surface temperatures. All of those factors will help weaken the now weaker tropical storm.

The NHC noted that Fred is expected to weaken to a tropical depression in 36 to 48 hours (by September 3) and become a remnant low in 2 to 3 days, but this could occur sooner.

Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

Aug. 31, 2015 – NASA Finds “Hot Towers” in Fred, Now a Hurricane

GPM image of Fred
On Aug. 30 when the GPM satellite examined the developing Fred, it found rain fall occurring at close to 128 mm (5.0 inches) per hour in “hot towers” reaching to 16.2 km (10.0 miles).
Credits: NASA/JAXA/SSAI, Hal Pierce

The Global Precipitation Measurement or GPM mission core satellite passed over Fred when it was developing in the Eastern Atlantic early August 30 and saw “hot towers” in the storm, which hinted that the storm was intensifying. 

Fred became the first Cape Verdes hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic season when it was upgraded from a tropical storm on August 31, 2015 at 0600 UTC (2 a.m. EDT).

The GPM core observatory satellite flew over on August 30, 2015 at 0236 UTC when Fred was forming from a tropical wave that moved off the African coast. Rainfall was measured by GPM’s Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) at the extreme rate of close to 128 mm (5.0 inches) per hour. Rainfall in towering convective thunderstorms at Fred’s center of circulation were providing the energy necessary for intensification into a hurricane. Three dimensional reflectivity data from GPM’s DPR showed that these “hot towers” had storm top heights reaching to 16.2 km (10.0 miles).

GPM is managed by both NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency.

A “hot tower” is a tall cumulonimbus cloud that reaches at least to the top of the troposphere, the lowest layer of the atmosphere. It extends approximately 9 miles/14.5 km high in the tropics. These towers are called “hot” because they rise to such altitude due to the large amount of latent heat. Water vapor releases this latent heat as it condenses into liquid. Those towering thunderstorms have the potential for heavy rain. 

NASA research shows that a tropical cyclone with a hot tower in its eyewall was twice as likely to intensify within six or more hours, than a cyclone that lacked a hot tower.

Early on August 31, Fred was lashing the Cape Verde Islands in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center noted hurricane conditions were occurring over portions of the easternmost Cape Verde Islands and are expected to spread northwestward over portions of the northern and northwestern Cape Verde Islands later today. Additionally, storm surge is expected to bring coastal flooding.

The rainfall that GPM saw on August 30 is expected to impact the islands today, August 31. Fred is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches.

At 8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fred was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 23.5 West. Fred is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday, September 1, according to NHC.  On the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to pass near or over the northwestern Cape Verde Islands later today, August 31. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 millibars.

Maximum sustained winds were near 80 mph (130 kph) and by Tuesday, September 1, gradually weakening is forecast to begin. For forecast updates, visit the NHC: www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hal Pierce/Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

Aug. 30, 2015 – Western Africa Gives Birth to Atlantic’s Tropical Storm Fred

Close up image of Tropical Storm Fred
This visible image from NOAA’s GOES-East satellite shows newborn Tropical Storm Fred near the Cape Verde Islands in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean on August 30 at 7:45 a.m. EDT.
Credits: NASA/NOAA GOES Project

Tropical Storm Fred developed early on Sunday, August 30, 2015 from a tropical wave off the coast of Western Africa. NOAA’s GOES-East satellite captured a visible image of the new tropical storm.

Because Fred is close to the Cape Verde Islands, a Tropical Storm Warning was in effect. In addition, there’s a Hurricane Watch in effect for the Cape Verde Islands as Fred is expected to strengthen to hurricane-force.

A visible image from NOAA’s GOES-East satellite showed newborn Tropical Storm Fred was near the Cape Verde Islands in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean on August 30 at 7:45 a.m. EDT. The image was created by NASA/NOAA’s GOES Project at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. 

Fred and Erika's remnants in one GOES image
This visible image from NOAA’s GOES-East satellite shows newborn Tropical Storm Fred near the Cape Verde Islands in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean on August 30 at 7:45 a.m. EDT and Erika’s remnants over Florida.
Credits: NASA/NOAA GOES Project

At 8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC), the National Hurricane Center reported that the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 12.9 North and longitude 19.3 West. That’s about 315 miles (505 km) east-southeast of Praia in the Cape Verde Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 kph) and NHC noted that steady strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Fred could be near hurricane strength when it moves through the Cape Verde Islands.

Fred was moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 kph) and that general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Tropical Storm Fred is expected to move through the Cape Verde Islands by late Monday, August 31 and into Tuesday, September 1.

Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center