[image-402][image-185][image-420]NASA's TRMM Satellite Calculates Hurricanes Fay and Gonzalo Rainfall
The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission or TRMM satellite can estimate rainfall rates from its orbit in space and that data is used to create a rainfall analysis and calculate total rainfall for weather events in the tropics. NASA used TRMM and other satellite data to calculate rainfall from Atlantic hurricanes Fay and Gonzalo.
Tropical Storm Fay battered Bermuda on October 12, 2014 and became a hurricane after passing the island. The following Friday powerful Hurricane Gonzalo passed directly over the island on Friday October 17, 2014 causing flooding and damage to many structures. The remnants of Gonzalo also pounded the British Islands with winds exceeding 70 mph causing the death of at least one person.
An analysis of rainfall was conducted on Fay and Gonzalo as they moved through the central Atlantic Ocean and over Bermuda. The analysis was based on near real time TRMM-based precipitation estimates (TMPA) that were produced by merging data from several satellites.
The analysis showed that Gonzalo generated several areas over the Atlantic Ocean where rainfall totals topped 12 inches (300 mm). Fay's maximum rainfall was between 4 and 8 inches (100-200 mm).
The rainfall estimates have been developed at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland by the precipitation research team. The type of data used in this analysis is expected to be superseded by a Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission product in late 2014.
TRMM is managed by NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency. For more information about TRMM, visit: trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov. For more information about GPM, visit: www.nasa.gov/gpm.
SSAI/NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
[image-167]Oct. 21, 2014 - NASA Sees Gonzalo Affect Bermuda's Ocean Sediment: Stirred, Not Shaken
NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites captured before and after images of Bermuda and surrounding waters before and after Hurricane Gonzalo struck the island on Oct. 17. The images revealed how Gonzalo stirred up the sediment from the ocean bottom.
The MODIS instrument or Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer that flies aboard NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites provided imagery of Bermuda and the stirred sediment. In a comparison of imagery before and after Hurricane Gonzalo passed, the after image showed sediment streaming east and south of Bermuda. The MODIS instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured a "before" look of Bermuda on Oct. 4 at 17:20 UTC (1:20 p.m. EDT). The MODIS instrument aboard NASA's Terra satellite captured the "after" image from Oct. 19 at 15:00 UTC (11 a.m. EDT).
Whenever a hurricane moves over an area, it stirs up sediment from the ocean bottom. In more shallow areas the mixing of sediment to the surface is more visible on satellite imagery.
Around Bermuda, the ocean is shallow. There are coral reefs and banks that can be seen under the surface when waters are clear. Bermuda's coral reefs are some of the northern-most reefs in the North Atlantic. In the MODIS images a lighter blue area traces the outline of the shallow waters around the reef. The deeper water around it appears dark blue. Run off of sand dirt from the island fans out in tan and light green plumes. The extra nutrients that the run-off and bottom sediment bring to the surface may be feeding surface-dwelling ocean plants, which may also color ocean waters turquoise.
As the sediment settles around Bermuda, the United Kingdom was dealing with post-tropical cyclone Gonzalo's remnants.
Gonzalo's remnants were bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to much of the United Kingdom on Tuesday, Oct. 21. The U.K. Meteorological Service forecast wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph. In some coastal areas, winds could reach 60 to 70 mph. For updated forecasts from the U.K. Met Service, visit: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk.
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
[image-312][image-330][image-348][image-366]Oct. 20, 2014 - Gonzalo: First Hand Account in Bermuda, Next Stop: the United Kingdom
Hurricane Gonzalo departed from Bermuda leaving power outages, downed trees, and damaged homes and buildings. An on-the ground account of the storm indicated the eye passed over the island. By Oct. 20, post-tropical storm Gonzalo was approaching the United Kindgom, sparking severe weather warnings.
By Sunday, Oct. 19 Gonzalo was affecting eastern Canada. Forecasters expect Gonzalo to hold together over while traveling east across the North Atlantic where it will affect Scotland as an extra-tropical storm on Tuesday, Oct. 21.
Camille Haley was former NASA intern and is now a resident of Bermuda. She provided an account of her experience as Hurricane Gonzalo struck the island on Oct. 17.
"Light rain and wind slowly strengthened during the mid-afternoon, as Gonzalo approached Bermuda," she said. "At around 4:00 p.m. local time the wind and rain intensified by the minute. On a typical day, we can see the ocean from the veranda but there was no visibility within 100 feet at this point. I saw an electric wire fall in the neighbors’ backyard; it continued to spark for hours. Trees were bending, branches were snapping and leaves were blowing everywhere. We were surrounded in darkness as the electricity in the area had gone out. Candles, flashlights and occasional strikes of lightning were our only light source.
Suddenly there was a strange silence. The wind and rain had come to a complete stop. Curious, I opened the front door to feel a smothering heat. The sky was clear and all that could be heard was the whistling sound of what seemed like a million tree frogs. The eye of the storm had arrived. If I had not known that the eye of Hurricane Gonzalo was going to approach us, I could have assumed that the storm had passed. Thankfully during this time, we were able to get a phone call through to my Aunt who lives in Boston. She was able gave us an update on what was predicted to come next. Without warning the wind roared fiercely followed by harsh rain. The second half of Gonzalo arrived with ferocity. In my opinion this was the worst part. I barely slept fearing that the front door and windows were going to implode. The howling sound of the wind was haunting.
The next morning the sky was clear and the ocean was calm. Although my neighborhood didn’t suffer much damage, other than a few electric wires falling, other areas of the island had fallen light poles, wires and trees, crushed fences and walls. Some homes had roofs that fell in or came completely off. I’m amazed at how many trees were uprooted or fallen over across the island."
By October 18, Gonzalo had moved north of Bermuda and was headed toward eastern Canada.
Between 7 a.m. and 8 a.m. on Oct. 19, a weather station on Cape Race, Newfoundland reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 kph) and a gust of 55 mph (89 kph). St. Johns Newfoundland recently reported a wind gust of 45 mph (72 kph).
At 8 a.m. EDT on Sunday, Oct. 19, Gonzalo was still a hurricane over the cold waters of the north Atlantic. A tropical storm watch is effect for Arnolds Cove to Chapels Cove, Newfoundland, Canada.
.On Sunday, Oct. 19 at 8 a.m. EDT, Gonzalo's center was near latitude 47.6 north and longitude 50.1 west. NOAA's GOES-East satellite captured a visible image of the storm on Sunday, Oct. 18 at 1145 UTC (7:45 a.m. EDT) that showed it in the North Atlantic, blanketing eastern Canada and stretching east over open waters. At that time, Gonzalo was moving toward the northeast near 52 mph (83 mph). Gonzalo moved quickly away from Newfoundland into the North Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds were near 85 mph (140 kph) and gradual weakening was forecast.
Just three hours later the MODIS instrument aboard NASA's Terra satellite captured a visible image that showed Hurricane Gonzalo had moved more than 150 miles further east from Newfoundland, Canada than when the GOES image was taken.
On Oct. 19 effects from Gonzalo were still being felt in many places because of dangerous ocean conditions. Large swells, now waning, were affecting the Virgin Islands, the northern coasts of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, portions of the Bahamas, portions of the United States east coast, Bermuda and Atlantic Canada.
By Sunday night Gonzalo and become an extra-tropical cyclone with a cold core center (instead of a warm center like a tropical cyclone) as the National Hurricane Center expected.
Gonzalo is expected to affect Scotland on Tuesday, October 21 as an extra-tropical storm, packing heavy rains and gusty winds.
On Monday, Oct. 20, the U.K. Meteorological Service issued a National Severe Weather Warning for the U.K.: "The remains of Hurricane Gonzalo are running across the Atlantic, reaching the UK on Monday night, bringing a period of strong winds to the U.K. The strongest winds are expected on Tuesday as the low pressure clears eastwards; some uncertainty remains in peak windspeeds but there remains the potential for disruption to travel, especially as the strongest winds coincide with the morning rush hour in places. Fallen leaves impeding drainage increases the risk of surface water affecting roads, while some damage to trees is possible, given that many are still in full leaf." For updated warnings from the U.K. Met Service, visit: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk.
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
[image-113]Oct. 17, 2014 - Satellites See Major Hurricane Gonzalo Slamming Bermuda
NASA and NOAA satellite imagery at 2 p.m. EDT on Friday, Oct. 17 showed Major Hurricane Gonzalo nearing landfall on the southern side of Bermuda. NOAA's GOES-East satellite saw a more ragged eye on the approach. NASA compiled the imagery from a couple of days into a video that shows the progression of the hurricane as it began landfalling.
Bermuda was under a hurricane warning at 2 p.m. EDT on Oct. 17, meaning that hurricane conditions were expected within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 18 hours.
On Oct. 16 at 17:45 UTC (1:45 p.m. EDT) the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured a visible image of Hurricane Gonzalo. The MODIS image revealed that the eye appeared open. By Oct. 17 at 11 a.m. EDT, NOAA's GOES satellite imagery showed that the eye was not as distinct as it was when Aqua flew overhead.
Visible imagery from NOAA's GOES-East satellite at 1:45 p.m. EDT showed that the eye had continued to become more ragged as Gonzalo's center neared landfall on the island of Bermuda. The National Hurricane Center noted that "Gonzalo is expected to be a dangerous Category 3 hurricane as it moves near or over Bermuda."
[image-131]A compilation of GOES-East satellite imagery from Oct. 15 to Oct. 17 was made into a video by the NASA/NOAA GOES Project at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. The 58 second video showed the progression of Gonzalo as it moved past Puerto Rico and strengthened into a Major hurricane.
Gonzalo's Location at 2 p.m. EDT on Oct. 17
At 2 p.m. EDT on Oct. 17 Gonzalo's maximum sustained winds were near 120 mph (205 kph), making it a Category Three Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 millibars.
The eye of Hurricane Gonzalo was near latitude 31.0 north and longitude 65.6 west. That's just 100 miles (165 km) south-southwest of Bermuda. Gonzalo was moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 kph) and is expected to continue moving north-northeastward.
[image-149]Winds and Heavy Rainfall for Bermuda
Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda later on Oct. 17. The NHC noted that wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hilly terrain are often up to 30 percent stronger than at the surface and in some elevated locations can be even greater.
Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over Bermuda.
Dangerous Surf Covering a Large Area
A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The NHC said that large swells generated by Gonzalo are affecting Bermuda and portions of the Virgin Island, northern coasts of Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic. Dangerous swells are also affecting the Bahamas and portions of the U.S. Southeast coast and are expected to spread northward along the U.S. East Coast today. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
For updates on location effects and conditions, visit the National Hurricane Center website: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.
After passing Bermuda and moving south of Newfoundland, Canada in the next day and a half, the NHC forecast calls for Gonzalo to begin transitioning to an extra-tropical storm as it runs into increasing wind shear and cooler waters.
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
[image-95]NASA-JAXA's GPM satellite Explores Hurricane Gonzalo
On October 16th, 2014 (1342 UTC) the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission's Core Observatory flew over Hurricane Gonzalo as it headed towards Bermuda. Hurricane Gonzalo remains a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, with maximum sustained winds at 130 mph. As of 12:00 UTC (8:00a.m. EDT) on Friday, October 17th, the National Hurricane Center forecast located the storm about 195 miles south southwest of Bermuda, where a hurricane warning is in effect.
The GPM Core Observatory carries two instruments that show the location and intensity of rain and snow, which defines a crucial part of the storm structure – and how it will behave. The GPM Microwave Imager sees through the tops of clouds to observe how much and where precipitation occurs. The Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar provides the three-dimensional view, showing the structure of the storm spiraling inward toward the center, with heavier rain on the north side of the storm. Shades of blue represent ice in the upper part of clouds. Viewed from the side, the stark color change from blue to green marks the transition from ice to rain.
For forecasters, GPM's microwave and radar data are part of the toolbox of satellite data, including other low Earth orbit and geostationary satellites, that they use to monitor tropical cyclones and hurricanes.
The addition of GPM data to the current suite of satellite data is timely. Its predecessor precipitation satellite, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, is 18 years into what was originally a three-year mission. GPM's new high-resolution microwave imager data and the unique radar data ensure that forecasters and modelers won't have a gap in coverage. GPM is a joint mission between NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency. All GPM data products can be found at NASA Goddard's Precipitation Processing Center website http://pps.gsfc.nasa.gov/.
High Resolution downloadable video available at SVS: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/details.cgi?aid=4230&button=search&valu...
Data provided by the joint NASA/JAXA GPM mission.
[image-204][image-222][image-186]Major Hurricane Gonzalo Gives an "Eye-opening" Performance
NASA and NOAA satellites have been providing continuous coverage of Hurricane Gonzalo as it moves toward Bermuda. NASA's Terra satellite saw thunderstorms wrapped tightly around the center with large bands of thunderstorms wrapping into it. NOAA's GOES-East satellite provided and "eye-opening" view of Gonzalo, still a Category 4 hurricane on Oct. 16.
A hurricane warning is in effect for Bermuda and that means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area, meaning the entire island.
On Oct. 15 at 15:30 UTC (11:30 a.m. EDT) the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument aboard NASA's Terra satellite captured a visible picture of Hurricane Gonzalo in the Atlantic Ocean. The image revealed a cloud-covered center with strong thunderstorms surrounding the eye as bands of strong thunderstorms in the southern, eastern and northern quadrants spiraled into the center.
NOAA's GOES-East satellite captured an image of Hurricane Gonzalo off the U.S. East Coast on Oct. 16 at 13:07 UTC (9:07 a.m. EDT) and showed that Gonzalo's eye had become cloud-free. The image also showed a line of clouds associated with a cold front stretching over 1,600 miles that just moved off the U.S. East coast and headed toward Gonzalo.
On Thursday, Oct. 16 at 8 a.m. EDT, Hurricane Gonzalo was still a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 140 mph (220 kph). Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km).
Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) cautioned that "Slow weakening is forecast but Gonzalo is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves near Bermuda."
Gonzalo's eye was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter near latitude 25.5 north and longitude 68.7 west. That puts the eye of Gonzalo about 525 miles (845 km) south-southwest of Bermuda. The minimum central pressure measured by the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 940 millibars.
Gonzalo is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 kph) and this general motion is expected to continue today. The NHC forecast calls for a turn toward the north-northeast and an increase in forward speed tonight (Oct. 16) and Friday (Oct. 17). On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo is expected to pass near Bermuda on Friday.
The NHC expects hurricane-force winds, and rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches in Bermuda. A storm surge with coastal flooding can be expected in Bermuda, with large and destructive waves along the coast. In addition, life-threatening surf and riptide conditions are likely in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Bahamas. Those dangerous conditions are expected along the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda later today, Oct. 16.
The NHC forecast calls for Gonzalo to remain a major hurricane on its approach to landfall in Bermuda. For updated information and forecasts, visit: www.nhc.noaa.gov.
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
[image-150][image-77]Oct. 15, 2014 - Satellite Eyes First Major Atlantic Hurricane in 3 Years: Gonzalo
Hurricane Gonzalo has made the jump to major hurricane status and on Oct. 15 was a Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. NOAA's GOES-East satellite provided imagery of the storm. According to the National Hurricane Center, Gonzalo is the first category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Ophelia in 2011.
NOAA's GOES-East satellite provides visible and infrared images of weather from its orbit in a fixed position over the Earth. On Oct. 15 at 15:15 UTC (11:15 a.m. EDT) GOES saw Gonzalo had tightly wrapped bands of thunderstorms spiraling into the center of its circulation. The eye of the storm was obscured by high clouds in the image. NOAA aircraft data and microwave images clearly show concentric eyewalls, with the inner radius of maximum winds now only about 4-5 nautical miles from the center.
NOAA manages the GOES satellites, while NASA/NOAA's GOES Project at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland created the image. The NASA/NOAA GOES Project creates images and animations from GOES data.
At 11 a.m. EDT on Oct. 15, Gonzalo's maximum sustained winds increased to near 130 mph (215 kph) and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted that fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next couple of days. Gonzalo's cloud-covered eye was located near latitude 23.5 north and longitude 68.0 west, about 640 miles (1,025 km) south-southwest of Bermuda. Gonzalo is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 kph). The minimum central pressure recently reported by an air force reconnaissance aircraft was 949 millibars.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda by late Thursday night, Oct. 16, and hurricane conditions are possible over Bermuda on Friday Oct. 16.
Ocean swells however, will be felt over a much larger area, reached the U.S. east coast on Oct. 16. Large swells generated by Gonzalo are affecting portions of the Virgin Islands, the northern coasts of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic and portions of the Bahamas. Swells will reach much of the east coast of the United States and Bermuda on Thursday.
By late Oct. 16, Gonzalo is expected to turn to the northeast and the center is expected to approach Bermuda sometime on Oct. 17.
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
[image-148][image-132]Oct. 14, 2014 - NASA Sees Hurricane Gonzalo Head Toward Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gonzalo intensified into a hurricane late on Monday, Oct. 14 and is expected to become a major hurricane as it moves toward Bermuda. NASA's Aqua satellite saw powerful thunderstorms within the center of the storm that were dropping heavy rainfall.
At 5 pm EDT, on Oct. 13 Gonzalo had become a hurricane. At that time, the center of the storm was just 20 miles southeast of St. Martin. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted that maximum sustained winds had increased to near 75 mph (120 kph) and additional strengthening was forecast. Gonzalo continued moving through the northern Leeward Islands overnight.
On Oct. 13 at 7:11 UTC (3:11 a.m. EDT) the AIRS instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured infrared data on Gonzalo that showed powerful thunderstorms around the center of circulation. Cloud top temperatures were colder than -63F/-52C.
On Oct. 14, a tropical storm warning remained in effect for the British Virgin Islands, Anguilla, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.
On Oct. 14 at 5 a.m. EDT the eye of Hurricane Gonzalo was located near latitude 19.6 north and longitude 64.4 west. That's about 90 miles (145 km) north-northeast of St. Thomas. Gonzalo was moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 kph) and a turn toward the north-northwest is forecast by late Wednesday. On the forecast track the center of Gonzalo will move over the open Atlantic north of Puerto Rico today. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 kph) and additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. NHC said that Gonzalo is expected to become a major hurricane today.
The current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center takes Gonzalo over the island of Bermuda as a hurricane on Friday/Saturday.
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
[image-96][image-114]Oct. 13, 2014 - Tropical Storm Gonzalo Triggered Many Warnings in Eastern Caribbean
The Eastern Caribbean islands were getting the brunt of Tropical Storm Gonzalo as the storm slowly moved through on Oct. 13. NASA's Terra satellite and NOAA's GOES-East satellite provided data on the storm. Gonzalo is the sixth named storm in the Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Season.
On Oct. 12 at 15:00 UTC (11:00 a.m. EDT), NASA's Terra satellite flew over Tropical Storm Gonzalo while it moved over the Lesser Antilles. The MODIS instrument captured a visible image of the storm that showed a concentration of strong thunderstorms around the center of circulation and in a thick band east of the center.
A visible image from NOAA's GOES-East satellite on Oct. 13 at 1145 UTC (7:45 a.m. EDT) showed Tropical Storm Fay northeast of Bermuda and Tropical Storm Gonzalo over the Lesser Antilles. Fay appeared circular, but didn't have the signature shape of a tropical storm like Gonzalo, with bands of thunderstorms spiraling into the center. The image was created by the NASA/NOAA GOES Project at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.
Gonzalo is over the Lesser Antilles and affecting many eastern Caribbean islands so there are many warnings and watches in effect. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted the following: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra, U.S. Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Guadeloupe, Desirade, Les Saintes, and Marie Galante, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, St. Maartin, Saba and St. Eustatius, Barbuda, Antigua, Anguilla, St. Kitts And Nevis, Montserrat, Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra, U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands.
A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 hours. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
On Monday, Oct. 13 at 8 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Gonzalo had maximum sustained winds near 60 mph (95 kph). The National Hurricane Center expects strengthening during the next 48 hours and Gonzalo is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or Tuesday, Oct. 14. The center of Gonzalo was located near latitude 17.0 north and longitude 61.5 west. That's about 20 miles (35 km) east-southeast of Antigua and about 50 miles (75 km) north of Guadeloupe.
NHC said that Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 kph). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast today, followed by a turn toward the northwest by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will move across the Leeward Islands today and near or over the Virgin Islands tonight.
The National Hurricane Center expects Gonzalo to intensify into a hurricane on Wednesday, Oct. 15 after having turned to the northwest. Gonzalo is then expected to move north-northeast and by pass east of Bermuda on Oct. 17.
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
[image-50]Oct. 12, 2014 - NASA Sees Newborn Tropical Storm Gonzalo form and Threaten Caribbean Islands
Tropical Storm Gonzalo formed quickly on Oct. 12 just east of the Leeward Islands, triggering tropical storm warnings for many islands. NOAA's GOES-East satellite captured an image of the newborn storm on Sunday, Oct. 12, and Tropical Storm Fay northeast of Bermuda.
The GOES East satellite is a geostationary satellite managed by NOAA. At NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland the NASA/NOAA GOES Project creates images and animations and today's visible image, taken at 2:45 p.m. EDT showed a smaller Gonzalvo east of the Leeward Islands while Fay was northeast of Bermuda.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Guadeloupe, Desirade, Les Saintes, Marie Galante, St.Martin, St. Barthelemy, St.Maartin, Saba, St. Eustatius, Barbuda, Antigua, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat A Tropical Storm Watch in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area...in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours.
On Sunday, Oct. 12 at 1:30 p.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Gonzalo had maximum sustained winds near 40 mph (65 kph) and is expected to strengthen over the next two days. Gonzalo was about 200 miles (320 km) east of Guadeloupe and 230 miles (370 km) east-southeast of Antigua, near latitude 16.4 north and longitude 58.4 west. Gonzalo was moving to the west at 10 mph (17 kph) and is expected to continue in that direction for the next two days before turning to the west-northwest.
The National Hurricane Center expects Gonzalo to move through the Leeward Islands early Monday morning, Oct. 12.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday night and Tuesday morning. Tropical Storm Gonzalo is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Leeward Islands...British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Eastern Puerto Rico with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches possible. Swells generated by Gonzalo will affect the Leeward Islands tonight and Monday morning from Dominica northward and affect the U.S. and British Virgin islands by Monday afternoon. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center