NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Seattle, Washington

Good evening, and thank you Joe (Dr. Joe Friday, President American Meteorological Society) for that very gracious introduction. Now I must ask, where is your badge number 714? Well tonight I'll try to offer a little more than just the facts. Indeed, I appreciate the opportunity to address our country's foremost atmospheric scientists about NASA's contributions to the field of weather and climate research as well as to our nation's weather and climate observation and prediction capabilities.

You may recall I had planned to join you last year but the conference came one week after the tragic loss of Columbia and the heroic Columbia crew. That was obviously a very sorrowful time for NASA, our nation, and the world. We are working hard to solve the problems that led to the accident and to continue demonstrating through our ambitious space research and exploration agenda, how much we can improve the lives of every one of us here on Earth.

I'm delighted, however, to be here with you during a week in which people throughout our world are genuinely excited by the way in which we have touched another world--our neighboring planet Mars.

To give you a special treat, I thought I'd show you the latest stunning images from the Red planet taken by our Mars Exploration Rover, Spirit.

We're looking at the Rover's base at the Columbia Memorial Station in the Gusev Crater. To give you a Martian weather report, allow me to do my best Al Roker imitation for you. The air temperature in the early morning hours at Spirit's landing site near the Martian Equator is currently minus 75 degrees. Due to a combination of dust and aerosols in the atmosphere, the Martian sky looks like a hazy day in Los Angeles. There are no visible dust devils at this time.

***FIRST MARS PHOTO ON SCREEN***

This latest view of Mars to the southwest of the rover shows the feature called Sleepy Hollow and a distant peak about 8 kilometers, or about 5 miles away.

***SECOND MARS PHOTO ON SCREEN***

This second image is a mosaic released this weekend. It shows the hills southeast of Spirit's landing site, which we have named Columbia Memorial Station, in honor of the seven brave astronauts who were lost almost one year ago. Like a hazy day on Earth, dusty Martian skies limit how much detail can be seen. The hills in the frame at the right are twice as far as those on the left, and because of the dust are harder to make out.

Spirit is in great health, and our communications with it are excellent. Its arm and all six of its wheels are free, and only a single cable must be cut before it can roll off its lander onto the soil of Mars. As egress, or "drive-off," preparations proceed today, scientists are taking the opportunity to take extra pictures and obtain other data.

Because one airbag remains adjacent to the lander's forward ramp, the rover will turn about 120 degrees to its right and exit the lander from the side facing west-northwest on the planet--also the direction of that intriguing depression in the first photo--Sleepy Hollow.

On Martian day 10--or Sol 10--tomorrow night into early Tuesday morning, engineers tentatively expect to cut the rover's umbilical cord to the lander, and execute the first segment of a three-part turn. The final two parts are planned for the next day.

If no issues crop up as those steps are completed, the rover could drive off onto the Martian soil by Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

The people of the world are intrigued by the images and data that Spirit is sending back...and we are as excited as they are. In the course of the next three months, as Spirit, and its twin, Opportunity--scheduled to land one week from now--will look for clues in rocks and soil as to whether there may have been abundant water for long enough in the past to sustain life.

Now as long as we're looking at these NASA family photographs, I'd like to show you something closer to home, which is just as spectacular.

***1ST MOVIE--ICESAT OVER ANTARCTICA ON SCREEN***

For the first time ever, we are able to obtain scientific data that gives us images of vertical characteristics of the Earth's surface and the atmosphere as never before.

The laser aboard the ICESat (ICE-Sat) satellite is measuring changes in the elevations of the Earth's great ice sheets, and is providing unprecedented information on the surface characteristics of Greenland and Antarctica, and how they are changing over time. This is crucial to understanding how they influence sea level both now and in the future.

***2ND MOVIE--ICESAT OVER ANTARCTICA ON SCREEN***

With the laser constantly firing 40 pulses every second as it passes over the Earth at about 15,000 miles per hour, it also provides detailed elevation information about land and ocean surfaces all over the globe, representing a new frontier in Earth Science research. At the same time, we are acquiring brand new information about vertical characteristics of clouds and aerosols as some of the laser light is reflected by particles in the atmosphere.

***ARCTIC ICE SHEETS MOVIE ON SCREEN***

Increasing knowledge about Earth's polar regions is very important to understanding global climate. Investments made decades ago by NASA to study these harsh Earth environments are still paying off. This animation shows how the extent of perennial Arctic sea ice has changed over the last 24 years.

As you can see, there is a tremendous amount of variability in the ice cover, and through these kinds of observations, we gain an understanding of just how dynamic the system really is. We can track the changes in the sea ice cover over time, and learn where it is growing and shrinking and understand how it interacts with the rest of the Earth system.

The microwave measurements that enabled these kinds of observations were pioneered by NASA in the 1970s and have been carried out by the Air Force since the late 1980s. This is an excellent example of an exploratory measurement capability being transitioned to an operational capability. This is what we do at NASA. We develop the research tools and turn them over to operational agencies. I'll discuss more about how we partner with NOAA and other agencies in this manner in a moment.

These two examples from our home planet family photo album, if you will, show the value of obtaining sustained observations of important Earth System processes.

I should add that this image was brought to you by NASA's Earth Science Enterprise, which is ably led by an outstanding public servant, Dr. Ghassem Asrar. Ghassem, would you please stand up and be recognized.

NASA's work helps expand knowledge of our home planet, which remains the most fascinating planet in the solar system. Tonight, through these and other examples, I hope to encourage you to help spread the word far and wide about the exciting work we are doing to better understand the third very dynamic rock from the sun.

NASA has a storied history in the weather field, beginning with the launch of Tiros, the first weather satellite back in 1962. We are quite proud of this heritage, and of our partnership with NOAA, and its outstanding leader Vice Admiral Conrad Lautenbacher, in developing, testing and deploying the nation's civilian operational environmental satellite system.

On a personal note, let me observe that over the course of my career, I have come to appreciate the vital importance of useful weather information. When I had the honor to serve as Navy Secretary, I was keenly aware on a daily basis the significance of accurate weather information for planning military activities and for protecting our servicemen and women. Of course at NASA, weather is a primary consideration whenever we launch an important space mission.

It is most useful to note that over one third of the U.S. economy, $3 trillion annually, is influenced by climate, weather, and natural hazards. In the Washington, D.C. area, one can't escape noticing the power that weather forecasts have over people--just the mere mention of snow flurries is enough to cause panicked Washingtonians to drive like idiots as they make crazed bread and milk runs to and from the local supermarket. The viewer share the Weather Channel gets on those days gives American Idol a run for its money.

Tonight, I want to talk about weather in the larger context of what NASA does to advance scientific knowledge and to help better society. When I look at the impressive work of the nation's meteorological community, I am mindful that we share many common purposes. These purposes are aptly summed up by our mission goals of understanding and protecting our home planet, exploring the Universe and searching for life, and inspiring the next generation of explorers.

Like NASA, your community is at the forefront of using science--employing the observations that you require, the hypotheses you make and test, and the models that you run--to help us "understand" our home planets' weather dynamics.

Through your ability to warn the public of impending severe weather events, you do a valuable service in helping to protect our world. Similarly, NASA is working on a number of important climate-related projects tied to our mission goals of understanding and protecting our home planet.

Of course, NASA also looks forward to what should be an incredible century of space exploration. And the knowledge we jointly gain throughout our efforts to understand our home in space, Planet Earth, as a dynamic, life-harboring planetary body, will help inform our solar system exploration agenda and the fascinating quest for life beyond Earth.

We also certainly share with your community a common link when it comes to inspiring the next generation of explorers to study math, science and technology, and consider careers in these exciting fields.

If your kids are anything like my kids, you know that they really get jazzed about space exploration and extreme weather phenomenon. Fortunately, NASA and AMS have recognized this opportunity to engage our youth through their innate curiosity about these subjects in a number of hands-on learning experiences.

In all these ways we are partners in great national enterprises. And may that ever be so.

Many of you are engaged in Climate Change research and tonight I'd like to highlight our work in support of the Administration's Climate Change Science Program. Our goal is to accelerate the availability of knowledge about the dynamics of climatic change and improve our ability to provide useful climatic predictions for policy makers and the public.

I also want to emphasize NASA's commitment to engage in productive partnerships, both at a national and international level, to improve weather and climate observational and forecasting systems.

While we recognize climate always varies to some degree, it's clear that climate trends are changing. There are certain things we can all agree on. The average temperature of the Earth has increased in recent decades, with many of the warmest years on record being in the last ten years.

Concentrations of atmospheric trace gases that affect greenhouse warming are increasing. The distribution of aerosol particles in the atmosphere is changing, and this can have important implications for the global climate and regional hydrologic cycles.

We also understand that the Earth's climate system is very dynamic. It changes a lot. And where we are in those cycles has enormous implications for weather. El Nino and La Nina may be the best known of these cycles.

Now let's deal with what we don't know. There's still tremendous uncertainty about the future, which derives in part because we do not fully understand what's happening today. Why is the temperature change in the upper troposphere different from that expected based on the temperature change observed at the Earth's surface? That's a good question, and one that I suspect many of you are working on.

There are many more questions: Is the distribution of precipitation on Earth changing? Given the local variability of precipitation, that's hard to say. What observations, research, and model improvements are needed to help provide the knowledge required to facilitate our answering this question in the future?

In a warmer future climate, how will the frequency, duration, and geographic distribution of extreme events, like hurricanes, change? I appreciate the complexities of these scientific questions, and the other important scientific research you are engaged in.

Clearly, there are important national and international policy issues at stake in the area of climate. Accordingly, the Bush Administration is taking a leadership role in providing the scientific research base that will enable government leaders to propose policies that are environmentally, scientifically, and economically sound.

Nearly three years ago the President announced a significant Climate Change Research Initiative that now engages the talents of several federal agencies, including NASA.

The Administration's decadal strategic plan for Climate Change Science calls for three major areas of emphasis to accelerate the availability of the scientific information and models needed to help inform policy decisions. The first area of emphasis is on the emerging science of non-CO2 greenhouse gas forcing, especially aerosols; carbon over North America; and climate feedbacks involving clouds, water vapor, and Polar Regions.

The instruments we're flying aboard NASA's Earth observing satellites are providing significant information about the global distribution of aerosols, allowing scientists to assess their global impact on the climate system.

We're constantly introducing new techniques for studying aerosol distributions. Among them are the multi-spectral and multi-angular approaches used on our Terra spacecraft launched in 1999, and the lidar approach to be implemented aboard the joint US-French CALIPSO satellite to be launched next year.

As part of NASA's commitment to the Climate Change science program, we hope to accelerate the flight of the Glory mission to as early as 2007 to provide earlier availability of this space-based polarimeter that measures the optical properties of aerosols and clouds. This device is slated to become a regular part of the next generation military and civilian weather satellite system.

In addition, as a unique contribution to our knowledge of climate forcing, NASA is studying carbon dioxide amounts in the atmosphere from the AIRS instrument aboard the Aqua satellite, launched in 2002. In the longer term, NASA will provide global carbon dioxide column observations through the Orbiting Carbon Observatory satellite, which was selected last year as part of our Earth Explorer program.

The second major area of emphasis for the Climate Change Science Program is in the area of observations and monitoring. The Bush administration has taken the lead in promoting international cooperation in observations and monitoring activities.

Last summer, the United States hosted the first-ever Earth Observing Summit in Washington, D.C., with over 30 countries agreeing to work together to create an integrated system for Earth Observations.

This spring the cooperating nations will reconvene in Tokyo to draft a framework to turn this concept into a reality. Admiral Lautenbacher is the co-chair of the Group on Earth Observations, or GEO, that is developing a set of coordinated international plans to create a coordinated, comprehensive and sustained global observing system in the future. More countries have signed on since the summit, and we're actively working to capitalize on this interest.

NASA's unique contribution to this global endeavor is our constellation of 18 Earth observing research satellites, with several new ones in development. We not only initiate new measurement approaches to study the Earth, but we can pioneer innovative platform approaches, such as constellations of satellites whose combined power is greater than the sum of their parts, to provide real synergy in space observations.

Our Earth Observation satellites are providing scientists with observations of the terrestrial and oceanic surface together with that of the overlying atmosphere. Through them we are getting nearly all of the benefits of simultaneity and co-location of observations without requiring the use of excessively large and complex space platforms.

We're also working to introduce new technologies into our nation's system of operational satellites. For example, NASA, DoD and NOAA are developing the next generation weather satellite system I mentioned earlier. NASA is also working with the U.S. Geological Survey to continue the land cover and land use observations pioneered through the Landsat series of satellites.

Another goal we have is to advance global cooperation on a whole new set of observing capabilities, with precipitation being at the top of our list.

Finally, with respect to our work on climate science, I would like to mention the large and successful investment we have made in the Earth Observation System Data and Information System. We've built a very comprehensive system to command and control our Earth Observing satellites, and process, archive and distribute observations and resulting information to all users. We are making additional investments in supercomputers, high bandwidth networks and storage technologies to ensure we continue to benefit from the system we have set up for a long period of time.

I'd like to shift gears now to talk about NASA's contributions to improved weather prediction. As I said earlier, there is no clear separation between climate and weather -- and understanding what the weather will be like in the climate of the future is of vital interest to our economic security. The research NASA sponsors, and that AMS scientists' conduct, aids our economy in immeasurable ways.

It's important to start by recognizing our successes. For example, data from NASA's QuikScat satellite and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission are helping our ability to accurately predict the path and intensity of hurricanes.

Many of you closely followed the course of hurricane Isabel when it hit the eastern seaboard last September and were elated how NASA's satellites provided a three dimensional view of the storms' output of precipitation as well as accurate measurements of Isabel's surface winds.

It is also well worth noting that two human explorers had the best possible view of this tremendous storm. I'm speaking, of course, about our International Space Station crewmembers Ed Lu and Yuri Malenchenko. Indeed, Ed took a dramatic hurricane image from his perch 250 miles over our heads that appeared on the front pages of most newspapers throughout our land.

Turning to the future of weather forecasting, with the launch nearly two years ago of the Aqua satellite, our scientists are working with NOAA to accelerate the use of the temperature and water vapor profile data into weather forecasts. I believe we will make this happen much faster than any previous incorporation of research data into operational forecasts.

NASA is definitely in the business of enabling improved weather forecasts for the long haul, through our investments in technologies for active remote sensing. The space-based measurement of atmospheric wind profiles is certainly high atop most everyone's list of parameters for us to observe.

Thus far, we've focused on the development of sensor technology that would let us do this effectively and reliably from space. It's a tough challenge -- one of the toughest we've tackled, but we're confident that the collective efforts of our nation's scientists and engineers will prevail.

We're also beginning now to think about truly revolutionary capabilities NASA can offer the nation. One possibility is ocean surface wind observations from mid-Earth orbit to increase the frequency of global coverage from once per 42 hours to three times every day. Another possibility would be to use microwave sensors from geostationary orbits to obtain a continuous view of the three dimensional structure of clouds.

There are equally exciting scientific prospects that could come from the use of even higher orbits to observe Earth's climate system. Obtaining aerosol observations from the L-1 Lagrange point between the Earth and the sun is an example of such possibilities. Think, for example, how we might be able to improve forecasting if we could have microwave sensor profiles in a near continuous way over a significant part of the globe for both scientific explorations and practical applications. Some of our best scientists and engineers are working toward the realization of these dreams.

I know you all support ongoing efforts to improve weather forecasting and knowledge of the Earth's climate. But NASA also recognizes that our ability to deliver on our long-term scientific commitments depends on the availability of a skilled work force that can advance today's state-of-the art.

As anyone who's looked into the future of scientific manpower in the US knows, training that workforce is a continuing challenge. While employment opportunities in science and engineering are expected to increase at a rate almost four times greater than for all other occupations throughout this decade, enrollment in science and engineering college courses has been on the decline. Our best and brightest are being drawn into other professions.

Still, there is much cause for hope. Earlier tonight, I had the privilege of meeting with several outstanding educators who are attending this conference. Through their dedication and persistence, I'm confident that hundreds if not thousands of bright young students will be inspired to pursue careers in science and engineering. Perhaps among those students will be the first atmospheric scientist to conduct a first hand study of weather conditions on Mars. I congratulate AMS for helping to advance the cause of science education, which we at NASA have embraced.

Indeed, we're committed to using the excitement of space exploration can help provide some of the spark to get young people fired up about pursuing careers in math, science, engineering and technology.

To add a human dimension to our education efforts, we've actively recruited a cadre of Educators to join our Astronaut corps. In February, we will announce our newest astronaut candidates, including a group of Educator Astronauts, who will work alongside our first Educator Astronaut, Idaho teacher Barbara Morgan, and the rest of our astronaut corps.

In addition to performing regular flight duties on future Shuttle and Space Station missions, NASA's Educator Astronauts will take their classrooms into space to directly engage millions of school children in lessons about the wonders of science.

This program should provide a strong motivation for students in the environmental sciences. Everyone I've talked to who's had the privilege of flying in space has told me how beautiful, inspiring, and humbling the view of the Earth is from space. While we can't provide today's students with the opportunity to fly in space, we should be able to enhance their participation in space exploration and discovery, and provide them with the same sense of excitement and awe many of us felt in our younger days when our Apollo astronauts were exploring the moon. And speaking of the Moon, you will more about this subject from the President on Wednesday.

With this inspiration, coupled with the availability of high quality curriculum products and well-trained teachers, we will do our part to inspire the work force of tomorrow so that the momentum we're developing can continue for generations to come.

In closing, let me just say what a pleasure it has been for me to join all my friends in the meteorological community tonight here in the Emerald City. I think it's a tremendous privilege to be involved in pursuits that are so important to the advancement of human progress. And I salute the AMS for all that you do to promote the atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic sciences.

Again, it has been a great honor to talk with you this evening. I thank you for your wonderful attention and I look forward to taking your questions. Thank you very much.

Sean O'Keefe
NASA Administrator