1 MR. McALISTER: Good morning and 09:05:27 2 welcome, everybody, to the first meeting of the 09:05:31 3 Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans 09:05:33 4 Committee. I just wanted to welcome everybody. 09:05:38 5 It's been a very good turnout today. I'm glad 09:05:41 6 you guys could join us. And to everybody that's 09:05:45 7 watching on the computer and on NASA TV, we want 09:05:47 8 to welcome you as well. 09:05:50 9 My name is Phil McAlister. I'm the 09:05:51 10 executive director of the committee. Just a 09:05:54 11 couple of quick notes. 09:05:54 12 This meeting is governed by the 09:05:57 13 Federal Advisory Committee Act. So this is a 09:05:59 14 public meeting obviously. All of the comments 09:06:01 15 today are on the record. 09:06:04 16 I ask that you please silence your 09:06:06 17 cell phones -- it's just like the movie 09:06:09 18 theaters -- so that we can get through the 09:06:13 19 agenda, which is very challenging today. 09:06:13 20 All of the presentations today will be 09:06:15 21 posted on the committee's website as well as the 09:06:17 22 minutes today. The committees's website is 09:06:18 7 1 http://hsf.nasa.gov. So please visit there. We 09:06:23 2 do have copies of the agenda also that are 09:06:33 3 available for anybody who wants to see it. 09:06:35 4 Let's see. I will be notifying the 09:06:38 5 presenters about five minutes before their end 09:06:40 6 so that we can make sure that we get through 09:06:43 7 everything. 09:06:45 8 I also wanted to mention that all 09:06:46 9 members of the committee have been reviewed by 09:06:48 10 NASA's legal counsel, they've analyzed all 09:06:50 11 potential conflicts of interest and they've 09:06:50 12 resolved all and -- any and all significant 09:06:55 13 conflicts in consultation with the Office of 09:06:57 14 Government Ethics. So we're in good shape 09:06:58 15 there. 09:07:00 16 There's going to be two public 09:07:00 17 comments periods today, one right before lunch 09:07:03 18 and then one right at the end of today. We're 09:07:05 19 very much looking forward to that, and we're 09:07:08 20 going to ask people to come to one of the two 09:07:10 21 standing microphones during those periods and 09:07:11 22 make your comments. If you could limit your 09:07:15 8 1 comments to about three -- no more than three 09:07:17 2 minutes, that would be preferable. We'd like to 09:07:19 3 get as much public comment in as possible. 09:07:23 4 We'd also request that you -- we would 09:07:25 5 strongly prefer that you ask questions via the 09:07:27 6 website. So if you have questions today, it 09:07:31 7 would be much better to submit those on the 09:07:33 8 website so that we can answer them and they can 09:07:33 9 be posted on the public's -- the website for all 09:07:35 10 of the public to see. 09:07:38 11 So for today, we're predominantly 09:07:41 12 looking for comments from the public for those 09:07:44 13 two periods. 09:07:47 14 For members of the media, we'd also 09:07:49 15 like those public comment periods to be before 09:07:49 16 the public. We've set aside a half hour at the 09:07:50 17 end of the day today at 5:00 for the media where 09:07:52 18 the chair, Norm Augustine, will be made 09:07:56 19 available to answer all of those questions. 09:08:00 20 With that, I'd like to turn it over to 09:08:02 21 our chair, Norm Augustine. 09:08:05 22 MR. AUGUSTINE: Okay. Thank you, 09:08:08 9 1 Phil. 09:08:08 2 Good morning, everyone. Your presence 09:08:09 3 today and the interest we've found in our 09:08:12 4 assignment, I think, speaks to the care and the 09:08:12 5 importance that is assigned to the topic. 09:08:15 6 I would encourage you, as Phil did, to 09:08:21 7 use our website. It's set up to handle a very 09:08:24 8 large capacity. We've already received a lot of 09:08:28 9 comments, and we look forward to more. 09:08:31 10 I'm not going to take time to 09:08:34 11 introduce all of my colleagues. Their names are 09:08:37 12 in front of them, and you probably know many of 09:08:39 13 them. Their biographies are on the website. 09:08:40 14 Three of our members had commitments 09:08:42 15 prior to their knowing they were going to be 09:08:46 16 doing this this summer. So we are depending a 09:08:48 17 lot on wiring people in by videoconference and 09:08:51 18 telephone conference, and that seems to work 09:08:54 19 very well. 09:08:57 20 We've been able to take some 09:08:58 21 preparatory steps for this meeting. There are 09:09:00 22 some administrative things we've set up. Let me 09:09:02 10 1 quickly cover them so you'll kind of know where 09:09:06 2 we are. 09:09:09 3 In terms of administrative actions, 09:09:10 4 we've set up four task groups or subgroups that 09:09:14 5 will be working on specific aspects of the 09:09:17 6 overall charter that we've been given. 09:09:21 7 We have taken steps to have the 09:09:23 8 Aerospace Corporation assist our panel directly. 09:09:26 9 They will be responding to tasks that we may 09:09:30 10 assign them, where we'd like to get more detail 09:09:33 11 and more background than we may have ourselves 09:09:37 12 as the members. 09:09:42 13 Today we're just going to be able to 09:09:42 14 do a snapshot overview. We'll be going into 09:09:45 15 much greater depth as time goes on and through 09:09:49 16 our subgroups. 09:09:52 17 And as Phil said, I've asked him to 09:09:53 18 kind of keep us on time as the day goes on. 09:09:55 19 And so with that, the first thing I'd 09:09:58 20 like to do, it's my privilege to introduce 09:10:00 21 Dr. John Holdren, whom you know is the science 09:10:05 22 advisor to the President and also the head of 09:10:08 11 1 the Office of Science and Technology Policy, and 09:10:10 2 it was really, I think, in large part, his 09:10:15 3 efforts that brought about this review. 09:10:19 4 John, we'd surely welcome any comments 09:10:22 5 you'd like to share with us. 09:10:26 6 DR. HOLDREN: Well, thank you, Norm. 09:10:28 7 And I want to start by thanking you and the 09:10:30 8 panel for stepping up to the challenge of 09:10:33 9 conducting this assessment of the future of U.S. 09:10:36 10 participation in human space flight. 09:10:42 11 The President is grateful to you for 09:10:43 12 this service. I'm grateful. NASA Acting 09:10:47 13 Administrator Chris Scolese is grateful. And 09:10:51 14 I'm sure the nominee for director of NASA, 09:10:55 15 General Bolden, would be grateful too if he were 09:11:03 16 allowed to comment publicly on anything before 09:11:01 17 his confirmation. 09:11:02 18 I want to start by emphasizing, to put 09:11:06 19 this in context, the importance that 09:11:12 20 President Obama places on science and 09:11:14 21 technology, in general, as keys to the country's 09:11:18 22 ability to address the great challenges we face 09:11:20 12 1 across a very wide array of issues, as you know, 09:11:22 2 including the economy, health, energy, climate 09:11:23 3 change, other resource and environmental issues, 09:11:26 4 national and homeland security. We face a truly 09:11:30 5 haunting array of challenges across these 09:11:34 6 domains, and only with a major contribution from 09:11:38 7 innovation driven by science, engineering and, 09:11:41 8 indeed, the social sciences as well are we going 09:11:46 9 to be able to meet those challenges effectively. 09:11:50 10 Our capabilities in space are a very important 09:11:53 11 part of that. 09:11:57 12 I like to think of our capacity to 09:11:58 13 meet that whole array of challenges as defined 09:12:00 14 by a set of cross-cutting foundational 09:12:03 15 capabilities which include the health of our 09:12:07 16 great fundamental research institutions, our 09:12:10 17 research universities, national and private 09:12:12 18 laboratories; the capabilities of our 09:12:15 19 infrastructure, information technology, 09:12:16 20 transportation, communications, energy; the 09:12:19 21 capacity of our teaching institutions in 09:12:24 22 science, technology, engineering and math 09:12:28 13 1 education from preschool to grad school and 09:12:30 2 beyond. 09:12:33 3 And I think of space as one of those 09:12:35 4 foundational cross-cutting sets of capabilities 09:12:39 5 that are essential to our ability to meet the 09:12:41 6 full array of applied challenges that we face. 09:12:42 7 Space, of course, is also a marvelous 09:12:47 8 venue for expanding fundamental knowledge, for 09:12:50 9 improving our understanding of the universe and 09:12:56 10 our place in it. It's a wonderful vantage point 09:12:59 11 for looking down as well as looking up for 09:13:04 12 understanding what's happening on the surface of 09:13:07 13 the Earth, whether it be changes in land use, 09:13:11 14 emissions of various pollutants, activities that 09:13:12 15 we need to understand to monitor our arms 09:13:16 16 control agreements -- a huge array of important 09:13:16 17 functions of looking down. 09:13:20 18 Space is also historically and in the 09:13:20 19 present a way of inspiring the next generation 09:13:23 20 to take an interest in science, technology, 09:13:26 21 engineering and math. It fulfilled that 09:13:29 22 function admirably during the space race, when a 09:13:32 14 1 whole generation of scientists and engineers -- 09:13:36 2 including, I should say, myself -- were inspired 09:13:36 3 to go into science and technology, in part, 09:13:38 4 because of the attractions and allure of space. 09:13:41 5 It continues along with other challenges to be 09:13:45 6 able to play that role. 09:13:47 7 And, of course, human space flight is 09:13:47 8 a particularly important component of that. The 09:13:52 9 extraordinary capabilities, the extraordinary 09:13:57 10 achievements, one only had to look at the 09:14:00 11 shuttle mission to the Hubble most recently -- 09:14:05 12 five space walks, extraordinary accomplishments 09:14:09 13 in fixing things that were never designed to be 09:14:14 14 fixed in space by astronauts using their 09:14:19 15 ingenuity and responding on the spur of the 09:14:22 16 moment to the conditions they faced -- 09:14:24 17 underlined why it is, always has been and always 09:14:24 18 will be important to be able to put human beings 09:14:29 19 in space. 09:14:29 20 Robotic space exploration is important 09:14:31 21 too. The other missions of NASA are important 09:14:35 22 in fundamental science, in Earth observation, in 09:14:38 15 1 aeronautics, but we have to maintain the 09:14:42 2 viability of our Human Space Flight program. 09:14:45 3 The President is determined to do 09:14:48 4 that. He's committed to human space flight. 09:14:50 5 He's excited by human space flight. He has 09:14:54 6 spoken with the astronauts while they were in 09:14:57 7 orbit in each mission that has taken place since 09:15:00 8 he was inaugurated. He'll continue to do that. 09:15:01 9 He met with the Discovery astronauts 09:15:04 10 after they returned. I'm sure we'll met with 09:15:08 11 the Atlantis astronauts as well. 09:15:08 12 This is a president who gets it. He 09:15:12 13 understands the importance of space. He 09:15:14 14 understands the importance of human space 09:15:17 15 flight. He was clear in his campaign and since 09:15:19 16 about his commitment to continue U.S. leadership 09:15:22 17 in space, to go back to the Moon, other 09:15:26 18 destinations beyond low Earth orbit. 09:15:30 19 And so the work of this panel is truly 09:15:31 20 important to the President, important to me, 09:15:34 21 important to the leadership of NASA as a way of 09:15:37 22 making sure that we have assessed all of the 09:15:40 16 1 reasonable options for our Human Space Flight 09:15:45 2 program going forward, to make sure we have the 09:15:49 3 best answers possible to the question of how to 09:15:54 4 minimum the gap in our capacity to put U.S. 09:15:56 5 astronauts into space on U.S. launchers, the gap 09:16:00 6 that will ensue after the scheduled end of the 09:16:03 7 shuttle program at the end of 2010 and the 09:16:06 8 beginning of the capacities to put U.S. 09:16:08 9 astronauts in space in the Constellation 09:16:11 10 program. 09:16:14 11 The panel will be looking at the 09:16:14 12 challenges of how to utilize the International 09:16:16 13 Space Station after 2016. It will be looking at 09:16:21 14 the various kinds of balancing that have to be 09:16:25 15 done in NASA in an environment of constrained 09:16:29 16 budgets among the different missions and the 09:16:32 17 different components of NASA's activities. It 09:16:35 18 is a daunting challenge for the panel, but 09:16:37 19 one -- when I review the qualifications of this 09:16:43 20 extraordinary group, one which I really could 09:16:45 21 not imagine finding a more qualified set of 09:16:48 22 people to address this set of issues. 09:16:51 17 1 Of course, one possibility is that the 09:16:53 2 panel will conclude that the -- is that the 09:16:54 3 course we're already on is the best one 09:16:56 4 available, and we will stay on it. It may also 09:16:58 5 conclude that are there are variations that 09:17:02 6 should be pursued. And I know that this panel, 09:17:04 7 with its extraordinary set of abilities and the 09:17:07 8 independence and integrity of all of its 09:17:10 9 members, will tell us whatever it is they think 09:17:13 10 we need to hear about those options going 09:17:17 11 forward. 09:17:21 12 We are looking, as Norm and the panel 09:17:21 13 already know, to get the panel's findings by 09:17:26 14 sometime in August in order to be able to 09:17:30 15 influence a whole series of decisions that the 09:17:33 16 NASA leadership and the Administration will be 09:17:36 17 making going forward. That timing, too, is a 09:17:39 18 great challenge. 09:17:43 19 And, again, all I can do is express my 09:17:43 20 gratitude and the President's and that of Chris 09:17:46 21 Scolese, who for understandable reasons happens 09:17:50 22 to be in Florida at the moment, to the panel for 09:17:54 18 1 taking this on. I know that what you find will 09:17:57 2 be of immense use to us as we figure out how to 09:18:01 3 move forward in the most expeditious way with 09:18:06 4 this immensely important program. 09:18:10 5 So thank you again very much. 09:18:12 6 And thank you all in the audience for 09:18:13 7 coming to this first public meeting of the Human 09:18:15 8 Space Flight Review. 09:18:19 9 MR. AUGUSTINE: John, thank you very, 09:18:21 10 very much for being here and for the support you 09:18:23 11 and your office have given to us. 09:18:25 12 When I think about all of the 09:18:27 13 challenges our nation faces, space being just 09:18:29 14 one of them, so many of them are rich in 09:18:32 15 technology and science, and we couldn't have a 09:18:36 16 better person in the position of advising the 09:18:39 17 President on those issues than Dr. John Holdren. 09:18:41 18 So, again, John, thanks for being 09:18:45 19 here, and thanks for what you're doing. 09:18:46 20 We now would like to hear from 09:18:50 21 Mr. Chris Scolese, who is the acting 09:18:53 22 administrator of NASA, as you know, who has 09:18:57 19 1 filled that job for some months now. And we've 09:18:59 2 had the chance to visit with him briefly before, 09:19:02 3 and we'll be spending a good deal of time with 09:19:05 4 him. And we've also had a chance to just very 09:19:07 5 briefly have conversations with his successor, 09:19:11 6 who we'll be able to speak with more when he's 09:19:18 7 officially in position. 09:19:15 8 But Mr. Scolese has agreed to make a 09:19:19 9 few remarks this morning, and if everything 09:19:24 10 works the way we hope it will and it looks like 09:19:26 11 it is, Chris, welcome, and we'd love to hear not 09:19:28 12 only your comments on this panel but what's 09:19:32 13 happening where you are. 09:19:32 14 (Whereupon, Mr. Scolese presented his 09:19:32 15 comments via videoconference as follows: 09:19:34 16 MR. SCOLESE: Okay. Good morning. 09:19:34 17 Well, I guess I'll start with what's happening 09:19:38 18 down here. We, of course, had to scrub the 09:19:41 19 launch last night. 09:19:46 20 We have detected a leak in the GUP 09:19:47 21 with the area where we vent the liquid 09:19:52 22 hydrogen -- the gaseous hydrogen. The size of 09:19:56 20 1 the leak is about the size of a pinhole. So 09:20:03 2 it's a -- it's very small, but still it's 09:20:05 3 something that we need to be concerned about. 09:20:06 4 We don't yet have the cause for it. 09:20:08 5 This happened recently. The last -- 09:20:11 6 the mission before the Hubble servicing mission, 09:20:15 7 we were able to go in there and fill in the -- 09:20:18 8 do a replacement and a repair, and everything 09:20:22 9 went fine. We did the same thing this time, but 09:20:25 10 this time we didn't succeed. 09:20:29 11 So we're going to have to take a step 09:20:31 12 back, go off and look at what occurred, 09:20:33 13 understand the data and then go back, and we'll 09:20:35 14 have an attempt again no earlier than the 09:20:39 15 beginning of July when we'll try and fly this 09:20:43 16 mission then. But, of course, we're going to 09:20:47 17 fly safe, and we're going to understand what 09:20:49 18 occurred on this latest activity and then we'll 09:20:51 19 proceed. 09:20:55 20 But this morning I'd like to thank the 09:20:56 21 panel for agreeing to do this. We know how busy 09:20:59 22 you all are, and we really appreciate you taking 09:21:03 21 1 the time to go off and work on this very 09:21:07 2 important task. It's hard to add much more to 09:21:10 3 what John discussed earlier. 09:21:14 4 This is something that's critical for 09:21:17 5 the nation. It's critical for NASA. We 09:21:19 6 recognize clearly the importance of space and 09:21:23 7 aeronautics to the nation and to the world and 09:21:26 8 the human space flight, in particular, that 09:21:31 9 we're going to be reviewing here. 09:21:34 10 There's a number of challenges going 09:21:36 11 on in the budget environment that we live in. 09:21:37 12 There's a number of options that clearly can be 09:21:40 13 considered, and we hope to hear those from you 09:21:43 14 and work with you on that. 09:21:49 15 To that end, I want to assure you that 09:21:51 16 NASA is going to be very open and thorough in 09:21:54 17 our support of the team. To that end, we put 09:21:58 18 two of our best and brightest -- Phil McAlister, 09:22:02 19 who introduced the conference, and Mike Hawes -- 09:22:07 20 to support the team. 09:22:11 21 Mike is the head of our program 09:22:12 22 analysis and evaluation. He's uniquely suited 09:22:14 22 1 to be able to support the team because he looks 09:22:18 2 at the entire agency, he looks at all of the 09:22:19 3 things that we do. So human space flight is one 09:22:23 4 component of that. He has a long history in 09:22:26 5 that activity and understands it very well. I 09:22:28 6 assure you -- and I've told him -- that he has 09:22:32 7 access to everybody within the agency, and I'm 09:22:34 8 sure Charlie Bolden, when he's on board, will 09:22:37 9 make sure that that continues. 09:22:41 10 As we proceed, probably a couple of 09:22:43 11 items worth mentioning. I know the team is 09:22:46 12 going to work very hard -- the review committee 09:22:50 13 is going to work very hard looking at what we 09:22:53 14 do. And one of the things I -- or some of the 09:22:56 15 things that I think are important, as you look 09:22:58 16 at us, are to consider the mission that we have, 09:23:01 17 to get humans out of low Earth orbit now. 09:23:06 18 That's going to require us to do something we 09:23:09 19 haven't done in over 40 years. 09:23:13 20 The challenge is going to be greater 09:23:15 21 because this time we're not just going to go 09:23:18 22 back to the Moon for a few visits for a few days 09:23:21 23 1 but ultimately to travel beyond the Moon, 09:23:25 2 ultimately to Mars and other destinations that 09:23:29 3 will require long duration space flight. 09:23:31 4 Critical to that, of course, is our 09:23:31 5 understanding of long-duration space flight and 09:23:35 6 our International Space Station that is up there 09:23:36 7 today crewed by six people now and beginning to 09:23:40 8 conduct the research that we need to do to 09:23:43 9 understand long-duration space flight. So 09:23:46 10 there's some components that we need to consider 09:23:50 11 there. 09:23:53 12 I'd ask you to consider the comments 09:23:54 13 of the CAIB that looked at the aftermath of the 09:23:57 14 Columbia accident and made some recommendations 09:24:00 15 to NASA about separating crew and cargo, 09:24:04 16 providing crew escape and those types of 09:24:09 17 activities. 09:24:13 18 Also looking at our international 09:24:14 19 partnerships, both our commitments that we have 09:24:15 20 today but also what we need to do in the future. 09:24:18 21 Space is an international venture. Everything 09:24:21 22 that we have done almost since the beginning of 09:24:24 24 1 the Space Age has involved international 09:24:29 2 partnerships, whether they be in our robotic 09:24:30 3 missions or in our human space flight missions, 09:24:32 4 and we expect that will be something that will 09:24:37 5 be continued in the future. 09:24:37 6 And, of course, we have to look at our 09:24:38 7 program and understand it in terms of the budget 09:24:41 8 environment, the technological capabilities of 09:24:45 9 the nation, our industrial capabilities, how we 09:24:49 10 maintain those, our academic institutions and 09:24:53 11 how we preserve the pipeline of scientists and 09:24:57 12 engineers and technicians that we'll need to 09:24:58 13 operate not only these systems but other systems 09:25:01 14 and how we motivate them. 09:25:04 15 So that's really about all that I can 09:25:06 16 add to it. Again, I'd like to thank you for 09:25:08 17 agreeing to serve on this commission. I want to 09:25:11 18 let you know that we'll listen carefully, we'll 09:25:13 19 work with you closely and we'll work with the 09:25:16 20 Administration as we develop responses and 09:25:19 21 respond to the options that are presented. 09:25:22 22 So thank you again. 09:25:25 25 1 MR. AUGUSTINE: Chris, thank you very 09:25:27 2 much and particularly under the circumstances 09:25:29 3 where you're very busy there for taking the time 09:25:32 4 to talk to us. 09:25:35 5 The support we've received from Mike 09:25:37 6 and Phil has been fantastic as we've tried to 09:25:39 7 organize and get ourselves prepared to move 09:25:42 8 ahead. 09:25:45 9 So thank you. We look forward to 09:25:46 10 working with you as well. 09:25:48 11 (Whereupon, the videoconference 09:25:48 12 portion of the meeting was concluded.) 09:25:48 13 MR. AUGUSTINE: I think that brings us 09:25:49 14 to our first briefing, which, appropriately 09:25:50 15 enough, is to take a look at past studies that 09:25:53 16 have been conducted. We're not the first to 09:25:55 17 look at the Human Space Flight program by a long 09:25:57 18 shot, and one of the things we'd like to do is 09:26:00 19 to learn from those who have gone before us. 09:26:04 20 Mike Hawes, who you heard Chris 09:26:08 21 describe his position at NASA, has been assigned 09:26:13 22 to give us technical support, and as I said, 09:26:13 26 1 he's done a terrific job of it. 09:26:17 2 And, Mike, if you would care to give 09:26:18 3 us a little bit of a summary of past studies 09:26:22 4 that relate to our charter. 09:26:25 5 MR. HAWES: Thank you, Norm. That's 09:26:27 6 exactly what I'd like to do, and I only have 09:26:29 7 one -- well, it's actually a double-sided chart, 09:26:31 8 and exactly as you captured, this exploration 09:26:35 9 mission question has been studied a number of 09:26:38 10 times by NASA and externals. 09:26:41 11 Some of the studies we have provided 09:26:46 12 you in your homework packages that, you know, we 09:26:48 13 have been sending you weekly since you got 09:26:52 14 named. Some of them we'll be able to hear and 09:26:53 15 discuss in our preparatory sessions, and some of 09:26:56 16 them you'll actually hear beginning today in 09:26:59 17 this public session. So that's really what I 09:27:01 18 wanted to just set that kind of context. 09:27:05 19 We kind of reached back and went 09:27:08 20 back -- we didn't go all of the way back to 09:27:10 21 Wernher von Braun, but we went back into the 09:27:14 22 late '80s anyway and have pulled out -- and I 09:27:17 27 1 would say that the words here are mine. If 09:27:19 2 anybody disagrees with the characterization of 09:27:22 3 perhaps what the themes were in here, you can 09:27:24 4 feel free to snarl at me, you know, outside 09:27:28 5 during lunch or something. 09:27:30 6 So we start with the exploration 09:27:30 7 office case studies back in the late '80s, the 09:27:32 8 90-day study, which was Dr. Cohen. 09:27:36 9 The synthesis report, we heard a 09:27:40 10 little bit from General Thom about the synthesis 09:27:42 11 report. We have provided that for you with 09:27:45 12 copies so you have multiple versions about that. 09:27:49 13 Followed on with the Office of 09:27:53 14 Exploration, a lunar outpost study in '93. 09:27:57 15 And then continuing in the theme, Dan 09:27:59 16 Goldin, as administrator, initiated a number of 09:28:04 17 activities that were all exploration focused. 09:28:07 18 One was focusing on the Human Lunar Return issue 09:28:08 19 and then an update of a Mars Design Reference 09:28:12 20 Mission -- is what we mean by DRMS. We have 09:28:20 21 actually also completed some more recent work on 09:28:21 22 updating that Mars Design Reference Mission, 09:28:22 28 1 given the change in our technologies and 09:28:26 2 environment. 09:28:28 3 The Decadal Planning Team was another 09:28:31 4 activity that was NASA lead that was in the 09:28:36 5 early 2000s as we have gone through. We have 09:28:38 6 the output of those materials that we can 09:28:43 7 certainly make available. 09:28:44 8 Chris mentioned the CAIB Report. And 09:28:46 9 in addition to the things that Chris highlighted 09:28:49 10 in terms of separating crew and cargo and the 09:28:52 11 crew safety aspects, the CAIB also took time to 09:28:55 12 make comment on the value proposition of human 09:28:59 13 space flight, and that value proposition being 09:29:03 14 driven by moving beyond the low Earth orbit that 09:29:06 15 we have been in for the last few decades. So 09:29:10 16 just in that aspect, I cite the CAIB for you. 09:29:13 17 Just after the vision was released, we 09:29:19 18 went through a variety of what we call Concept 09:29:23 19 Exploration and Requirement studies. We've 09:29:28 20 actually provided you, I believe, most of those 09:29:28 21 studies in terms of the study packages already. 09:29:32 22 And those studies were across a very broad set 09:29:35 29 1 of topics and several teams and companies 09:29:40 2 involved in those. So there's actually a wealth 09:29:44 3 of interesting stuff here. 09:29:48 4 When Mike Griffin came in as 09:29:50 5 administrator, he kicked off what has become 09:29:53 6 known as ESAS, the Exploration Systems 09:29:56 7 Architecture Study, and ESAS has set the 09:30:00 8 foundation of where we are today. And so much 09:30:03 9 of what you'll hear from the baseline program 09:30:07 10 has its roots in ESAS, but it has been grown and 09:30:11 11 modified in ways as we have gotten really into 09:30:14 12 the detailed design given the maturity of the 09:30:16 13 program today. 09:30:20 14 There are a few alternative options 09:30:21 15 that are out there. The Direct option is one 09:30:23 16 that's well known and well publicized external 09:30:27 17 to the agency. We'll actually hear from the 09:30:30 18 Direct team this afternoon. So you'll have an 09:30:32 19 opportunity to actually hear that. 09:30:35 20 We did a study within the agency that 09:30:38 21 we called Exploration Acceleration. This was 09:30:40 22 done by Ralph Roe. As you know, Ralph is on my 09:30:43 30 1 team. It was done with the full cooperation of 09:30:47 2 Doug and Jeff and the whole Constellation 09:30:51 3 program team and looked at potential ways to 09:30:55 4 increase our cost confidence for the program, 09:30:58 5 and I think many of the steps that Jeff and Doug 09:31:00 6 are taking now are well tied to that study 09:31:04 7 activity. 09:31:06 8 And then we heard a little bit as 09:31:06 9 well -- and it has been in your homework -- a 09:31:08 10 recent Congressional Budget Office report that 09:31:10 11 kind of lays out some of the constraints of 09:31:13 12 various scenarios of exploration given NASA's 09:31:16 13 budget profile. 09:31:20 14 So that's the context I wanted to set. 09:31:22 15 There are probably many more. You will hear 09:31:24 16 some other variations of activities today. That 09:31:27 17 was the goal for today -- was to get all of this 09:31:29 18 kind of laid out on the table for the panel and 09:31:32 19 then have you work with the NASA team to 09:31:35 20 determine what are the actions that we need to 09:31:40 21 take and go study in more depth. 09:31:44 22 Any of these that you're interested in 09:31:47 31 1 that we haven't provided, certainly let us know, 09:31:50 2 and we'll find a way. Some of these predate 09:31:53 3 our -- easily -- Electronic Age. So we'll find 09:31:56 4 a way to turn them into electrons so as to kill 09:31:59 5 less trees, but we can certainly make all of 09:32:05 6 these available for you. 09:32:07 7 And that's really all that I wanted to 09:32:07 8 try to accomplish this morning. 09:32:09 9 MR. AUGUSTINE: Mike, thank you very 09:32:10 10 much. 09:32:12 11 We have been frankly inundated with 09:32:12 12 the documentation, and we'll be putting a bunch 09:32:14 13 of that on the website. That which is not 09:32:16 14 propriety or have other sensitive aspects, we 09:32:19 15 will try to share with you as much as we've had 09:32:24 16 available to us. 09:32:27 17 The next topic on the agenda is, 09:32:27 18 logically enough, I think, to talk about the 09:32:33 19 existing program that's being pursued, the 09:32:34 20 Constellation program. Doug Cooke with NASA is 09:32:38 21 going to give us a very quick snapshot of that 09:32:38 22 to sort of fill out the reading material that's 09:32:38 32 1 been available. 09:32:56 2 MR. COOKE: Thank you very much, 09:32:56 3 Chairman Augustine. I appreciate the 09:32:58 4 opportunity to talk with you and your panel. 09:33:00 5 I represent the Exploration Systems 09:33:02 6 Mission Directorate, and our primary program -- 09:33:05 7 most visible is the Constellation program. We 09:33:08 8 also have a human research program, a technology 09:33:08 9 program, robotic program, and we also have the 09:33:13 10 COTS and FERTS within our program. These are 09:33:18 11 all important to us and most of which feeds 09:33:21 12 directly into the Constellation program and 09:33:26 13 helps support it. 09:33:29 14 Our focus at the moment is a program 09:33:30 15 driving toward initial operating capability in 09:33:35 16 March of 2015 with a mission to the Space 09:33:42 17 Station with Ares I and Orion. We do have a 09:33:43 18 focus also long term on moving beyond the low 09:33:49 19 Earth orbit with exploration, and that's very 09:33:53 20 important to us. And we have quite a bit of our 09:33:56 21 effort in understanding the end-to-end 09:33:58 22 architecture that we work toward. 09:34:00 33 1 We have a number of milestones coming 09:34:04 2 up very shortly. Actually in the next three 09:34:06 3 days we hope to launch the Lunar Reconnaissance 09:34:10 4 Orbiter and the Lunar Crater Observation and 09:34:11 5 Sensing Satellite, which is -- both of which are 09:34:14 6 going to the Moon on robotic spacecraft and will 09:34:17 7 be getting us rich data that will feed into our 09:34:22 8 understanding of the Moon. So we're really 09:34:24 9 looking forward to that, and they're ready to 09:34:26 10 go. 09:34:30 11 We also have this summer the first 09:34:30 12 test of a five-segment solid rocket booster, 09:34:32 13 which is the first stage of Ares I. That will 09:34:37 14 be in August. We have a preliminary design 09:34:39 15 review on Orion in August as well. We have the 09:34:40 16 Ares I-X first test flight in -- no earlier than 09:34:46 17 the end -- end of August but within that general 09:34:48 18 time frame and a Pad Abort 1 test this fall. 09:34:51 19 And so we have a lot going on and are 09:34:57 20 making a lot of progress. We hope to show that 09:35:00 21 to you in this presentation. Next chart. 09:35:02 22 There's a lot of discussion on vehicle 09:35:06 34 1 concepts, but to us we need to -- we consider 09:35:09 2 the entire mission, what is it we hope to 09:35:12 3 accomplish. And we have gone through an 09:35:16 4 international set of activities and with 09:35:19 5 13 other space agencies in developing objectives 09:35:21 6 and themes for what we want to accomplish as we 09:35:24 7 move forward on the Moon, in particular. 09:35:27 8 As we have developed concepts, we look 09:35:30 9 to this for the lunar operations, which we've 09:35:33 10 studied a lot. Actually we've have had teams 09:35:38 11 going on that since 2006, to define what 09:35:41 12 exploration means on the Moon, what is it you 09:35:44 13 actually do and achieve. So that has informed 09:35:45 14 the overall transportation architecture which is 09:35:48 15 shown here. 09:35:51 16 And so as you develop those lunar 09:35:52 17 scenarios, we came up with the idea of an 09:35:55 18 outpost at a polar location. That tends to 09:35:59 19 drive your lander, which then backs up 09:36:01 20 into end-to-end importance understanding on your 09:36:03 21 entire end-to-end transportation architecture 09:36:07 22 with the appropriate allocation of mass and 09:36:09 35 1 performance margins to all of the vehicles so 09:36:13 2 that end to end it all closes and it works. 09:36:16 3 So this is an integrated architecture 09:36:19 4 that we've been working on, and it has informed 09:36:24 5 our current vehicles. The performance obviously 09:36:26 6 affects the designs and performance of Ares I 09:36:28 7 and actually the Orion. 09:36:32 8 Things like translunar injection 09:36:36 9 loads -- when we fire up the Earth departure 09:36:40 10 stage to send Orion and the lander to the Moon, 09:36:44 11 you have loads, and those loads have been 09:36:49 12 studied and has affected the structural design 09:36:49 13 of Orion, for instance. 09:36:51 14 So all of this is being worked in an 09:36:53 15 integrated fashion as we develop and mature the 09:36:55 16 design for Orion and Ares I. We can go to the 09:37:00 17 next chart. 09:37:03 18 We also have a number of top level 09:37:04 19 objectives. We have a cascading set of 09:37:07 20 requirements that derive from this. And they 09:37:12 21 derive originally from policy that is national 09:37:14 22 policy, including authorization acts of 2005 and 09:37:16 36 1 2008, that have focused our attention and 09:37:21 2 designs to meet this. 09:37:26 3 That includes a retirement of the 09:37:28 4 Shuttle in 2010, reducing operations costs in 09:37:33 5 order to be able to operate effectively and have 09:37:36 6 a sustained program in the future, to develop 09:37:39 7 the systems that we have in terms of building 09:37:42 8 blocks for future exploration to Mars and 09:37:46 9 beyond. 09:37:50 10 We have as a primary focus as a design 09:37:50 11 factor safety. This program was born out of the 09:37:55 12 Columbia accident, and we have had a focus on 09:37:59 13 loss of crew probabilities as we develop our 09:38:04 14 systems. And they have driven actually many of 09:38:08 15 our component designs. 09:38:10 16 We are to -- in our planning are to 09:38:12 17 support the Space Station by 2015 and get to the 09:38:16 18 Moon by 2020 with lunar missions. 09:38:22 19 A driving factor, Chris mentioned it 09:38:27 20 earlier, separate crew from cargo. 09:38:31 21 And we also have to pay attention to 09:38:33 22 our existing infrastructure and assets, 09:38:35 37 1 people/workforce, in terms of both NASA and the 09:38:38 2 supplier base. It's an important factor in all 09:38:43 3 of this. 09:38:46 4 Other factors that we have driven into 09:38:46 5 the design are global lunar access, anytime 09:38:49 6 return with the vehicles, use of the Space 09:38:56 7 Station for exploration goals, which we do 09:39:00 8 through our human research and technology 09:39:04 9 programs as well as we will with the Orion, and 09:39:06 10 to promote international and commercial 09:39:11 11 participation. 09:39:12 12 We think all of this has to be looked 09:39:13 13 at in terms of an integrated architecture. If 09:39:15 14 we can go to the next chart. 09:39:15 15 We've gone through a decision process 09:39:20 16 to get to the vehicles that we have that are 09:39:24 17 driven by this guidance, and I won't go through 09:39:24 18 them step by step because I want to get to some 09:39:28 19 of the other aspects of the program. 09:39:31 20 But basically we've gone through 09:39:33 21 decision steps that have lead us to where we 09:39:33 22 are. The fact that we go beyond low Earth orbit 09:39:34 38 1 has driven us to heavy lift to a -- to the 09:39:37 2 physics drive you to a capsule-type design 09:39:39 3 versus wings in terms of entry speeds and that 09:39:44 4 sort of thing. And also in terms of 09:39:47 5 understanding the transition of workforce and 09:39:49 6 infrastructure facilities that were developed 09:39:52 7 for Apollo and the space shuttle, it has 09:39:55 8 affected the approach that we've taken, which is 09:40:01 9 a shuttle drive design, the Ares I and Orion and 09:40:03 10 Ares V. 09:40:11 11 And through that decision process we 09:40:11 12 have looked for the opportunity to have synergy 09:40:14 13 between these vehicles. We do between solid 09:40:17 14 rocket boosters, the J-2X upper stage engine, 09:40:20 15 which is important to both, and other systems. 09:40:24 16 We can go to the next chart. 09:40:28 17 And so as we assess this capability in 09:40:29 18 our initial approaches to supporting the Space 09:40:31 19 Station and the Moon, we also have assessed it 09:40:36 20 with respect to Mars missions in terms of lift 09:40:39 21 capability with a heavy lift and crew size with 09:40:43 22 Orion, and it is capable as the basic 09:40:47 39 1 transportation infrastructure to support various 09:40:50 2 destinations. Next chart. 09:40:51 3 So an important factor -- I'll mention 09:40:56 4 briefly -- is the transition of shuttle 09:41:01 5 capabilities. We are making use of a 09:41:03 6 significant set of capabilities -- both 09:41:06 7 facilities, people and hardware -- at a number 09:41:07 8 of locations. 09:41:10 9 We have manufacturing capability that 09:41:14 10 was developed for Apollo and is used by the 09:41:16 11 external tank of the shuttle at Michoud. That 09:41:19 12 is one that we're going to use as we develop the 09:41:21 13 upper stage and build structure for Orion. 09:41:25 14 We have other capabilities -- we have 09:41:28 15 the big capabilities you see at KSC with the VAB 09:41:31 16 and the launch pads. 09:41:39 17 And we have a significant supplier 09:41:39 18 capability in the ATK with building solid 09:41:43 19 rockets. 09:41:44 20 We have Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne 09:41:44 21 building liquid rockets for our human space 09:41:48 22 flight vehicles. 09:41:51 40 1 So there is a significant synergy, and 09:41:53 2 actually it has been very important in trying to 09:41:56 3 efficiently and effectively move from shuttle to 09:41:59 4 station in terms of figuring out how to 09:42:03 5 transition all of this infrastructure. 09:42:06 6 And so it's important as we move 09:42:09 7 across these boundaries in the retirement of the 09:42:11 8 shuttle and in the flight of Ares I and Orion 09:42:16 9 that we understand how we work through all of 09:42:20 10 these capabilities that we have in the agency. 09:42:22 11 So that is a part of our decision process and 09:42:26 12 why we're on the path we're on. 09:42:30 13 And I would like to, now, turn it over 09:42:33 14 to minutes, so Jeff will be getting ready. We 09:42:36 15 can go to next chart. 09:42:39 16 I have two charts that show where the 09:42:40 17 work is being done. Currently we do have all of 09:42:43 18 Ares I and Orion under contract. We have civil 09:42:47 19 servants with various responsibilities all over 09:42:49 20 the agency. We've spread out a number of the 09:42:53 21 primary responsibilities. All of the NASA 09:42:56 22 centers are involved in this work. Next chart. 09:42:59 41 1 We also have, as I said, contractors 09:43:02 2 in place that are working on all aspects of 09:43:04 3 this, including now EVA -- the EVA suits, but 09:43:09 4 located in places across the country supporting 09:43:14 5 this program. 09:43:17 6 And if Jeff would come up, I would 09:43:18 7 like to hand it over to him to go through some 09:43:22 8 of where we are in status and in our approach to 09:43:24 9 this as well as address some of the issues and 09:43:28 10 progress that we're making. 09:43:30 11 MR. HANLEY: Thank you, Doug. 09:43:36 12 Good morning. So I have a short movie 09:43:40 13 to show you in just a minute to kind of really 09:43:43 14 most efficiently express to you the progress 09:43:45 15 over the last three years and where we're at. 09:43:48 16 Before I get to that, though, I do 09:43:51 17 want to touch on a couple of the issues that I 09:43:53 18 know get discussed now and then in the 09:43:58 19 community, and I thought I'd update you on our 09:44:00 20 progress on those. So Next chart. 09:44:03 21 First, this is the key driving aspects 09:44:04 22 of our lunar mission that we're designing to, 09:44:06 42 1 and while many of these -- or all of these 09:44:10 2 affect the solution for going to the Moon, a 09:44:13 3 couple of them are most significant. Global 09:44:16 4 lunar access -- global surface access is really 09:44:20 5 probably the main driver in what size is this 09:44:23 6 architecture. 09:44:26 7 But all of those parameters have been 09:44:28 8 studied. They've been parameterized. We've 09:44:29 9 done a significant amount of work to understand 09:44:33 10 what this integrated architecture must do, as 09:44:36 11 Doug was pointing out in his remark. Next 09:44:39 12 chart. 09:44:39 13 And we've looked beyond the Moon. 09:44:42 14 We've gone and refreshed the Mars studies of the 09:44:44 15 '90s for human missions to Mars and to refresh 09:44:47 16 that looking at it from the standpoint of 09:44:50 17 applying Constellation elements and making sure 09:44:52 18 that the decisions that we're making today have 09:44:55 19 a feed forward not just to the Moon but actually 09:44:58 20 are building a capability that will eventually 09:45:02 21 result in an ability to realize a human Mars 09:45:05 22 mission. Next chart. 09:45:08 43 1 And we've looked at other applications 09:45:09 2 of this hardware. There's many possible things 09:45:12 3 that one can do with this robust, heavy lift 09:45:15 4 architecture that we're trying to foster with 09:45:19 5 Constellation. 09:45:24 6 We've got a capability to put cargo on 09:45:24 7 board the Orion to be able to do missions other 09:45:28 8 than just the crew support mission to the Space 09:45:29 9 Station or to meet up with a lunar lander in low 09:45:33 10 Earth orbit. 09:45:37 11 We've looked at other applications of 09:45:37 12 the -- us and others have looked at other 09:45:39 13 applications of the Ares V lift capability. Not 09:45:42 14 only is it unprecedented in terms of the amount 09:45:44 15 of mass it can lift to low Earth orbit but also 09:45:46 16 the volume. We've sized it so that 09:45:50 17 volumetrically it will be unprecedented. 09:45:52 18 In this cartoon here in the lower 09:45:52 19 right here, that's not a sophisticated 09:45:57 20 satellite. That's several school buses that are 09:46:00 21 stacked inside the Ares V shroud -- very 09:46:04 22 significant capability. Next chart. 09:46:07 44 1 And so here's a couple of the main 09:46:08 2 issues that folks bring up every now and then or 09:46:10 3 they hear about that I thought I'd give you the 09:46:15 4 latest information on. 09:46:18 5 First of all, as we've just pointed 09:46:20 6 out, it's integrated architecture. And so mass 09:46:21 7 is one of the driving parameters, both the lift 09:46:25 8 capability of the rockets and how much the 09:46:28 9 elements that the rockets carry weigh, as you go 09:46:29 10 through the entire life cycle of a mission from 09:46:33 11 liftoff on the launch pad until the crew is 09:46:38 12 recovered after landing. 09:46:42 13 And so here's where we're at today for 09:46:43 14 the ISS mission for the amount of margin that 09:46:48 15 we're currently carrying. 09:46:50 16 For Ares I, it has 22 percent lift 09:46:51 17 capability margin, which is very good for where 09:46:55 18 we're at today, which is just after PDR for the 09:46:59 19 rocket. 09:47:02 20 The spacecraft is sitting at 09:47:03 21 23 percent mass margin for the ISS mission, and 09:47:06 22 I am holding at my program level an additional 09:47:11 45 1 5 percent margin on top of that. We're doing 09:47:13 2 very well for Block 1 of Orion and for Ares I. 09:47:16 3 The lunar mission, still healthy 09:47:21 4 margins, but probably the most driving one that 09:47:24 5 you see there on the chart is the 10 percent for 09:47:26 6 Orion. We'll watch that very closely. I've got 09:47:30 7 that additional 4 percent in my pocket in the 09:47:34 8 event that we need that. But the rocket, again, 09:47:37 9 Ares I, is doing very well to be able to lift 09:47:40 10 the Orion to do both the lunar mission and the 09:47:44 11 ISS mission. 09:47:47 12 The limiting factor in this 09:47:47 13 architecture today in terms of the Orion's mass 09:47:48 14 is its ability to land under the parachutes. 09:47:50 15 The mass limit for the three big main parachutes 09:47:54 16 is really the driving -- the parameter that 09:47:59 17 sizes how heavy the Orion can be. It is not the 09:48:02 18 lift capacity of the rocket. 09:48:08 19 Another issue that gets talked about 09:48:09 20 is what we call tower clearance or launch drift, 09:48:12 21 and this received some notable mention a few 09:48:15 22 months back. 09:48:20 46 1 If one goes and looks at a video of 09:48:20 2 the Saturn V lifting off launch pad during 09:48:25 3 Apollo, watch it closely from the right vantage 09:48:28 4 point and you'll watch that launch vehicle walk 09:48:31 5 off of the pad away from the launch -- actually 09:48:32 6 steer away from the launch tower. And the 09:48:34 7 Apollo crew members speak quite eloquently about 09:48:37 8 what that sensation was like. 09:48:41 9 Well, this is no different in this 09:48:44 10 case. Every launch vehicle needs to assure its 09:48:46 11 way as it takes off the launch pad. 09:48:50 12 We have one specific wind direction 09:48:50 13 with a very stiff wind, near hurricane-force 09:48:51 14 winds, where we would need to steer away -- 09:48:55 15 actually steer away from the launch tower, which 09:48:57 16 we can easily do. We have a design in place 09:49:00 17 that could realize that. 09:49:08 18 We can also look at the -- at limiting 09:49:08 19 the wind conditions for that one case, which 09:49:12 20 would not be a significant impact at all to 09:49:15 21 our -- what we call our launch availability, our 09:49:19 22 probability of launching on any given day of the 09:49:23 47 1 year at the Kennedy Space Center. 09:49:26 2 So that issue is, for all intents and 09:49:30 3 purposes, really now just focused on how do we 09:49:32 4 minimum plume damage to the launch tower as the 09:49:34 5 vehicle flies away. 09:49:38 6 For any rocket and spacecraft system 09:49:39 7 one of the driving issues that designers deal 09:49:42 8 with is induced environments. That's the loads 09:49:46 9 and the weather that you've got to fly through 09:49:50 10 and the speeds at which the rocket is traveling 09:49:53 11 and what that induces on both the rocket and its 09:49:57 12 payload. 09:50:00 13 And one of the conditions that gets 09:50:01 14 talked about quite a bit is the phenomenon of 09:50:03 15 thrust oscillation, and this is the phenomenon 09:50:08 16 where for about a ten-second period in the 09:50:10 17 130-second burn of the first stage -- for about 09:50:10 18 a ten-second period the solid, which is really 09:50:12 19 just a big tube, has a resonant frequency. It's 09:50:15 20 like an organ pipe. 09:50:20 21 And so there can be conditions where 09:50:21 22 for that five- to ten-second period it can 09:50:24 48 1 resonate in a way that will vibrate not just 09:50:27 2 solid motor but the entire vehicle if the 09:50:31 3 vehicle is tuned up to it. 09:50:34 4 So we have taken active steps to 09:50:36 5 mitigate that through putting in isolation 09:50:36 6 planes between the solid and the second stage 09:50:39 7 and between the second stage and the spacecraft 09:50:41 8 in order to mitigate that, and we're moving 09:50:45 9 forward with those designs. 09:50:48 10 And that design will give us not just 09:50:50 11 a -- not just a -- for a single set of 09:50:52 12 conditions but for a range of conditions that 09:50:54 13 could -- worse case conditions that could occur 09:50:57 14 with that phenomenon. 09:50:59 15 In addition to that, we are working -- 09:51:01 16 continue to work -- as every team of rocket 09:51:04 17 designers does, we work on vibroacoustic loads, 09:51:07 18 in other words, the sound levels both at liftoff 09:51:13 19 and during flight. The sound levels have been 09:51:16 20 to accounted for in the design of the spacecraft 09:51:18 21 and of the rocket and selection of the 09:51:21 22 components. And that's all normal work for us. 09:51:23 49 1 Next chart. 09:51:23 2 Loss of Mission/Loss of Crew. This is 09:51:26 3 where we want to make a historical jump in the 09:51:30 4 safety of the systems both for launch and in 09:51:34 5 flight, an order of magnitude improvement over 09:51:41 6 what we enjoy with the space shuttle today. We 09:51:44 7 believe that we are on a path to achieve that. 09:51:50 8 The rocket and the spacecraft, from an 09:51:51 9 abort capability perspective today, we're doing 09:51:54 10 much better -- better than ten times what the 09:51:58 11 statistical analyses of the shuttle suggests 09:52:00 12 with respect to the ascent risk. 09:52:05 13 And over 60 vehicle design changes 09:52:08 14 have been made. And we've driven into 09:52:10 15 Constellation a risk-based design culture that 09:52:11 16 looks at the probabilities of particular 09:52:13 17 components failing, what their implications are 09:52:16 18 to the mission and to the crew's safety, and we 09:52:19 19 have made our selections in terms of 09:52:22 20 architectures in spacecraft systems and 09:52:25 21 selection of components in order to make the 09:52:29 22 most -- the safest and most reliable spacecraft 09:52:31 50 1 and rocket system that we can. 09:52:36 2 Post Landing Crew Survival. We've got 09:52:38 3 a system that can survive for 24 hours landing 09:52:40 4 anywhere in the water in the world, and we've 09:52:44 5 also made sure that under the contingency 09:52:48 6 condition that the spacecraft should land on 09:52:52 7 land that that is, in fact, a survivable event 09:52:54 8 for the flight crew. 09:52:58 9 Budgets continue to be a challenge. 09:53:01 10 There have been many numbers floated out there 09:53:04 11 as to what the total cost to initial operating 09:53:07 12 capability is today. We stand at $35 billion -- 09:53:10 13 that's with reserves -- to achieve the March of 09:53:11 14 2015 goal, and that's with a confidence level in 09:53:15 15 cost of 65 percent, in other words, two thirds 09:53:19 16 chance that it will not cost any more than 09:53:22 17 $35 billion. That's really what all of that 09:53:25 18 really means. 09:53:28 19 We did have an original plan to spend, 09:53:29 20 within the time frame of now through 2015, an 09:53:31 21 additional roughly $9 billion to get started on 09:53:35 22 Phase A of the lunar program. That's Ares V and 09:53:39 51 1 Altair. That whole activity, of course, is 09:53:43 2 under review by this panel. 09:53:45 3 And Schedule. Schedule for ISS 09:53:47 4 Initial Operating Capability. Our external 09:53:49 5 commitment of March of 2015 is stable today. We 09:53:52 6 have a plan to get to that date. 09:53:55 7 We are -- by the shape of our funding 09:53:57 8 profile, we are challenged to make sure that we 09:54:01 9 get the right components in the pipeline to get 09:54:04 10 the spacecraft built so we can get it qualified, 09:54:07 11 tested and verified to meet that March 2015 09:54:11 12 date. 09:54:15 13 So we are undergoing right now, as 09:54:15 14 Doug alluded to, a program-wide content review 09:54:18 15 looking at the entire breadth of content in the 09:54:22 16 Constellation program to see if there's any 09:54:25 17 economies that we can find, whether we can 09:54:26 18 eliminate certain configurations. 09:54:29 19 And one of those -- one of those 09:54:31 20 notable ones was the six versus four crew. We 09:54:32 21 eliminated that strictly to simplify the path to 09:54:36 22 get to initial operating capability of March 09:54:40 52 1 2015, and that was worked in very close 09:54:44 2 coordination with the Space Station program. 09:54:48 3 Next chart. 09:54:48 4 So here we'd like to show a little 09:54:51 5 video if we could. My hope is, of course, that 09:54:54 6 the technology cooperates with us here. 09:55:09 7 (Whereupon, an informational video was 09:55:09 8 presented as follows: 09:55:09 9 NARRATOR: It has been three short 09:55:37 10 years NASA began a journey to create the next 09:55:38 11 space program, one that would take us beyond 09:55:40 12 Earth orbit, returning us to the Moon and 09:55:43 13 extending our reach to Mars and beyond. 09:55:47 14 No longer just a program on paper, 09:55:47 15 Constellation has projects, hardware and 09:55:52 16 software in every stage of development. In just 09:55:54 17 three years, Constellation is ready for its 09:55:56 18 first test flights, launching a new era of human 09:56:00 19 space exploration. 09:56:05 20 Through the Constellation program, 09:56:18 21 NASA has taken a vision, the idea of exploring 09:56:21 22 beyond low Earth orbit, and strategically 09:56:23 53 1 created a detailed space architecture, a plan to 09:56:28 2 make the vision a reality. Constellation begins 09:56:31 3 by conducting missions to the International 09:56:31 4 Space Station, using the space laboratory as a 09:56:37 5 destination and proving ground for a new 09:56:39 6 generation of spacecraft. 09:56:42 7 Next Constellation sets its sights on 09:56:43 8 the Moon, exploring the lunar surface in ways 09:56:47 9 never before possible. 09:56:51 10 Unlike Apollo which was limited to the 09:56:52 11 exploration of the lunar equator, 09:56:56 12 Constellation's architecture will allow 09:56:56 13 astronauts to explore anywhere on the Moon, 09:56:58 14 staying twice as long as the Apollo missions 09:57:02 15 with twice as many crew members. This extended 09:57:06 16 exploration capability has been a driving force 09:57:09 17 for all of the Constellation spacecraft designs, 09:57:09 18 which will be able to lift more mass and travel 09:57:24 19 farther than any previous spacecraft. 09:57:24 20 The Orion spacecraft is the crew 09:57:24 21 exploration vehicle for Constellation. Orion 09:57:26 22 borrows its shape and aerodynamic performance 09:57:30 54 1 from Apollo, saving time and design work as well 09:57:34 2 as reducing risk. However, the spacecraft is 09:57:37 3 greater in size than Apollo, featuring updated 09:57:39 4 computers, life support, electronics, heat 09:57:42 5 protection and other systems. 09:57:45 6 The development of the Orion 09:57:47 7 spacecraft is well underway. Several test 09:57:51 8 articles have already been constructed and are 09:57:55 9 being evaluated at NASA centers and engineering 09:57:56 10 centers across the nation. 09:58:00 11 Parachute drops have been conducted to 09:58:02 12 test how Orion will return crews safely to 09:58:06 13 Earth. 09:58:11 14 The launch abort system, capable of 09:58:11 15 pulling the spacecraft and its crew to safety in 09:58:13 16 the event of an emergency, is set for a full-out 09:58:16 17 test in 2009, while the rocket motors used in 09:58:21 18 that system have already been evaluated in 09:58:24 19 preparation for that flight test. 09:58:24 20 The launch vehicle for Orion is called 09:58:37 21 Ares I. It features two key components 09:58:39 22 utilizing legacy hardware. A solid rocket 09:58:44 55 1 booster, similar to that used by the space 09:58:45 2 shuttle, comprises the lower stage of Ares I. 09:58:49 3 The upper stage features a J-2X liquid fuel 09:58:53 4 rocket engine derived from an Apollo-era rocket 09:58:53 5 engine. Using these proven systems, the Ares I 09:59:00 6 will get the crew into Earth orbit. 09:59:01 7 The Ares I project completed its 09:59:04 8 preliminary design review, the first such 09:59:08 9 milestone in more than 35 years for a U.S. 09:59:11 10 rocket. A test flight article of the Ares I 09:59:13 11 called the Ares I-X is slated for launch in 09:59:18 12 2009. The test flight will be a major turning 09:59:23 13 point in the program, providing essentially data 09:59:24 14 on avionics, thrust vector control and other 09:59:26 15 systems, validating computer models by actually 09:59:31 16 flying a full-scale vehicle. In preparation for 09:59:32 17 the test flight, segments of the Ares I-X have 09:59:35 18 already arrived at the Kennedy Space Center for 09:59:39 19 assembly and processing. 09:59:43 20 In addition, tests continue in all 09:59:45 21 facets of the Ares program, from computer 09:59:48 22 simulations to wind tunnel tests, to engine test 09:59:52 56 1 firings, providing engineers with the best 09:59:55 2 information possible on how the crew launch 09:59:59 3 vehicle will perform. 10:00:02 4 Ares V is the heavy lift cargo launch 10:00:04 5 vehicle. It will carry the lunar lander and 10:00:06 6 other large components into space. Again using 10:00:07 7 legacy hardware, the Ares V will utilize solid 10:00:11 8 rocket boosters during liftoff to help get the 10:00:15 9 vehicle into orbit. 10:00:17 10 The crew on board the Orion will 10:00:22 11 rendezvous with an Earth departure stage of 10:00:22 12 Ares V. The entire stack -- Orion, the lunar 10:00:29 13 lander and the Earth departure stage -- is then 10:00:34 14 sent toward the Moon, once again, using the J-2X 10:00:37 15 rocket motor. 10:00:42 16 Because several key components of 10:00:42 17 Ares V are the same as Ares I, much of the 10:00:44 18 engineering work being done applies to both 10:00:47 19 vehicles, from solid rocket booster tests to 10:00:49 20 firings of the J-2X rocket engine, which is the 10:00:53 21 first component to pass beyond the critical 10:00:57 22 design review phase. 10:01:00 57 1 In all, the Ares V will be able to 10:01:02 2 lift more mass than any previous spacecraft. 10:01:05 3 Studies have already been conducted to see how 10:01:09 4 this versatile craft could be used to launch 10:01:10 5 scientific payloads, satellites and even space 10:01:14 6 telescopes. 10:01:22 7 The Altair lunar lander will carry 10:01:23 8 four astronauts to the Moon. Larger and more 10:01:27 9 robust than its Apollo predecessor, Altair will 10:01:30 10 be able to land anywhere on the lunar surface, 10:01:35 11 even the lunar poles, previously an unreachable 10:01:35 12 target by manned spacecraft. 10:01:38 13 The Constellation program recently 10:01:41 14 competed a lunar capability content review, 10:01:47 15 demonstrating how the Altair lunar lander will 10:01:47 16 reach the Moon and later help build lunar 10:01:52 17 outposts. 10:01:55 18 Spatial studies by engineers have 10:01:56 19 helped determine the interior layout of the 10:01:57 20 lander, driving out better ergonomic designs for 10:01:59 21 the crews who must live on board for extended 10:02:05 22 stays on the Moon. 10:02:05 58 1 Additionally work has already started 10:02:06 2 on testing and improving all of the gear needed 10:02:07 3 for exploration in the Constellation era. From 10:02:11 4 lunar rover tests to planetary space suits, to 10:02:15 5 tools, NASA is taking hardware out of the 10:02:17 6 laboratory and into the field to achieve the 10:02:20 7 best possible designs. 10:02:23 8 In addition to the hardware 10:02:25 9 development, NASA facilities are updating their 10:02:27 10 capabilities for Constellation. New launch 10:02:30 11 pads, lightning safety systems, firing rooms, 10:02:35 12 factories and testing facilities are being 10:02:38 13 completed to accommodate the new wave of 10:02:41 14 exploration requirements. 10:02:43 15 Most importantly, the Constellation 10:02:45 16 program is about people. From around the 10:02:54 17 nation, all NASA centers are engaged in this new 10:02:56 18 exploration effort, problem solving, building, 10:03:00 19 testing and taking on the challenges of human 10:03:03 20 space exploration. It is an effort that brings 10:03:08 21 together generations, those who experienced the 10:03:11 22 Apollo Moon landings and those who came after. 10:03:14 59 1 Together they are working on a brighter future, 10:03:18 2 looking to return to the Moon and go beyond. 10:03:21 3 As the Constellation program leaps off 10:03:24 4 of the drawing table onto the launch pad, a new 10:03:26 5 chapter in exploration history is being written 10:03:30 6 one milestone at a time. 10:03:33 7 (Whereupon, the video presentation 10:03:33 8 concluded.) 09:32:56 9 MR. COOKE: Okay. If we could just 09:32:56 10 return to the charts briefly here -- 09:32:56 11 MR. McALISTER: Doug, we've got a hard 10:04:02 12 cutoff with the -- 10:04:05 13 MR. COOKE: Got you. 09:32:56 14 MR. McALISTER: -- videoconference 10:04:05 15 coming right up. 10:04:06 16 MR. COOKE: So with that, there's 09:32:56 17 photographs in the back of additional hardware. 10:04:08 18 And thank you for your time. 10:04:10 19 MR. McALISTER: Thank you. 10:04:02 20 MR. AUGUSTINE: Doug, thank you very 10:04:11 21 much, and I think we've all got a lot of 10:04:13 22 questions. We won't have time to take them 10:04:16 60 1 right now, but we'll have plenty of chance to 10:04:18 2 work with you in the future. 10:04:20 3 What we want to do now is turn to 10:04:22 4 another important aspect of the space program 10:04:24 5 which concerns our efforts with our partner 10:04:27 6 nations, and we have the opportunity this 10:04:30 7 morning to visit with two of our partners, 10:04:33 8 Mr. Dordain from ESA and General Perminov from 10:04:40 9 RSA. I believe they're together actually, and 10:04:45 10 we will set up a link here so that we can visit 10:04:48 11 with them. 10:04:52 12 MR. McALISTER: All right. Well, 10:05:20 13 we've hit our first glitch of the day. 10:05:20 14 Apparently the videoconference link has had a 10:05:23 15 technical difficulty in Paris, which is where 10:05:26 16 our international partners were going to link up 10:05:26 17 with us, but we do think we could get it 10:05:29 18 addressed in about ten minutes. 10:05:29 19 So we're going to take a ten-minute 10:05:31 20 break and -- 10:05:35 21 MR. AUGUSTINE: Well, wait a minute. 10:05:35 22 Why don't we -- instead of taking a break this 10:05:36 61 1 early, why don't we ask some questions -- 10:05:39 2 MR. McALISTER: Oh, that's a great 10:05:44 3 idea. 10:05:46 4 MR. AUGUSTINE: -- of Doug here -- 10:05:56 5 MR. McALISTER: Yeah. 10:05:56 6 MR. AUGUSTINE: -- if you don't 10:05:56 7 mind -- both of you. 10:05:56 8 I'll start out with one while my 10:05:56 9 colleagues are thinking, if that's all right. 10:05:59 10 I was struck on the LOC calculations 10:06:02 11 that on the shuttle that we know a lot about. 10:06:05 12 You show a range of uncertainty by the factor of 10:06:09 13 260 to 270, and yet for the Constellation it's 10:06:14 14 one thousand two hundred -- or 2,850. 10:06:20 15 And I'm not trying to nitpick, but 10:06:22 16 just the question is: If we're so uncertain 10:06:25 17 about today's system, how can we determine with 10:06:27 18 certainty or anything approaching certainty -- 10:06:31 19 MR. COOKE: Well, that's a great 10:06:35 20 question. And it's probably in the way that we 10:06:37 21 chose to express it in the charts. 10:06:40 22 The number that we cite for 10:06:42 62 1 Orion/Ares I is the mean, and there is a 10:06:44 2 distribution around that that would have a low 10:06:47 3 and a high value. It could be as low as a 10:06:49 4 certain number and as high as a certain number. 10:06:53 5 I don't have those numbers with me today. 10:06:56 6 The way we use these numbers is really 10:06:58 7 in comparison with alternatives in the design 10:07:01 8 that we might choose for various systems. The 10:07:04 9 probability numbers are really informing the 10:07:07 10 design. And so as we do comparative analyses, 10:07:09 11 really the absolute number is less important 10:07:16 12 than -- as long as the analysis is done in 10:07:19 13 comparing the alternatives in an 10:07:22 14 apples-to-apples way, that's where we would get 10:07:23 15 the most value out of those numbers. 10:07:26